The Miami Marlins will be taking on their divisional foe Philadelphia Phillies in a Saturday showdown. NBC Sports Philadelphia will televise the matchup and the game gets underway at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Odds
The Phillies are 39-36 straight up (SU) and 36-38 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 0.9 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 3.5 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread just once in its last seven games and the total went over in four of those seven. On the other hand, the Marlins are 28-46 SU and have gone 35-38 against the spread. Overall, the team’s lost 3.2 units for moneyline bettors and 11.6 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.
Philadelphia games have a 35-37-2 over/under record so far in 2019. Miami has an over/under record of 33-37-3.
The right-handed Elieser Hernandez is projected to start for the visiting Marlins. Hernandez (0-2, 3.95 ERA) has recorded 13 strikeouts in 13.2 innings so far. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.
The Phillies are handing the ball to righty Vince Velasquez (2-4, 4.71 ERA), who has 49 punchouts and 21 walks, along with a 1.52 WHIP. Velasquez is 0-0 with four strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA in one start against Miami this year.
Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.8 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. The club’s starting pitching staff has a 4.38 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.66 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 31 divisional games, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.32 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.40.
The Philadelphia offense has produced 4.7 runs per contest, including 5.1 per game against divisional foes and 1.6 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .211/.302/.317 over its last five matchups and is 0-5 SU during that span.
The Phillies’ batters have been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and first baseman Rhys Hoskins. Hernandez is hitting .268/.326/.424 with seven home runs, 33 RBIs and 32 runs scored, and Hoskins has produced a line of .272/.398/.517 with 15 homers, 49 RBIs and 38 runs scored.
For the visitors, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.07 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.19, along with a WHIP of 1.23.
Marlins hitters have slashed .236/.296/.349 on their way to 3.5 runs scored per game this season, including 3.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
Third baseman Brian Anderson and first baseman Miguel Rojas continue to lead Miami’s offense. Anderson is slashing .247/.334/.400 with nine home runs, 32 RBIs and 26 runs scored, while Rojas is hitting .274/.335/.335 with zero homers, 21 RBIs and 24 runs scored.
The Marlins have lost 3.2 units and are 24-30 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 22 of those games, compared to 30 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 7.3 units and are 27-27 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 24 of those games, compared to 28 that went under.
Marlins at Phillies Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – UNDER
Betting Trends
- The under has cashed in three of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
- The Marlins have a team OPS of .645 this season and an OPS of .645 against right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS stands at .737 overall and .723 against righties.
- The Phillies have dropped seven of their last eight games SU.
- Philadelphia has recorded 19.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 15.2 over its last five.
- The Marlins have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.
