The Atlanta Braves are ready to square off against their divisional rival Miami Marlins in a Sunday showdown. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will be showing the action.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Odds
Atlanta (-135) is coming into this one as the favorite over Miami (+125) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this game at 8 runs. Odds for betting on the game’s total now sit at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at Braves -1.5 runs (+110) and Marlins +1.5 runs (-130).
The Braves have gone 35-29 SU this year and are 31-32 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 0.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 0.6 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in six of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 23-39 SU and 28-33 ATS. They’ve lost 1.7 units for moneyline bettors and 12.8 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven.
Marlins games have a 28-31-2 over/under record so far in 2019. Atlanta has been a decent over bet with a total record of 33-25-5.
Max Fried will get the nod for the visiting Braves. The southpaw Fried is 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA and 59 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Marlins this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.
The Marlins will put the ball in the right hand of Pablo Lopez (4-5, 4.52 ERA), who’s got 62 punchouts and 16 walks as well as a 1.15 WHIP. Lopez is 0-1 with 11 strikeouts and a 3.27 ERA across two starts against Atlanta this year.
Miami’s pitching staff has given up 4.5 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. The club’s starters have an ERA of 3.95, a WHIP of 1.24 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.0. The bullpen has a 5.03 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. In 30 divisional games, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.80 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.29.
The Miami offense is putting up 3.5 runs per contest, including 3.2 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .243/.309/.407 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Marlins’ offense has been led by third baseman Brian Anderson and second baseman Starlin Castro. Anderson is slashing .241/.323/.384 with seven home runs, 27 RBIs and 21 runs scored, while Castro’s line is .230/.264/.313 with four homers, 26 RBIs and 19 runs scored.
In the other dugout, Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.23 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.10 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.26, along with a K-per-9 of 9.61.
Braves hitters have slashed .257/.333/.437 on their way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
First baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. continue to lead Atlanta’s offense. Freeman is slashing .311/.402/.594 with 17 home runs, 41 RBIs and 46 runs scored, while Acuna Jr. is hitting .282/.365/.478 with 13 homers, 38 RBIs, 39 runs and eight stolen bases.
The Braves have lost 4.5 units and are 23-24 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 21 of those games, compared to 22 that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 2.1 units and are 10-7 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in nine of those games, as opposed to seven that’ve cashed the under.
Braves at Marlins Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – UNDER
Betting Notes
- The over has cashed in six of Atlanta’s last seven outings.
- The Braves have a total OPS of .770 this season and an OPS of .751 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS sits at .643 overall and .645 versus righties.
- Atlanta has recorded 21.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 22.2 over its last five.
- The Braves have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
