Josh Bell and the Pittsburgh Pirates are set to square off against their division rival Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park in a Saturday showdown. The matchup begins at 4:10 p.m. ET and you can watch the game on ATPT and FSWI.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds
Las Vegas has Milwaukee (-150) as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+140). If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to go below 9.5 runs scored, then Vegas is offering even money odds (+100) for the under. Taking the over return -120 odds. There’s a runline of Pirates +1.5 (-155) and Brewers -1.5 (+135) for this matchup.
The Pirates have gone 30-32 SU this year and are 32-29 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 4.2 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having lost 2.3 units ATS. Pittsburgh is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Brewers, on the other hand, are 36-28 SU and 31-32 ATS. The team’s gained 3.2 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 3.0 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.
Milwaukee games have an over/under record of 27-35-1 so far in 2019. Pirates games have gone over 35 times, gone under 24 times and pushed on two occasions.
Right-hander Jordan Lyles will get the nod for Pittsburgh. Lyles is 5-3 with a 3.38 ERA and 61 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with five strikeouts and a 6.00 ERA against Milwaukee this year.
The Brewers are putting the ball in the right hand of Zach Davies (6-0, 2.20 ERA), who’s got 45 strikeouts and 20 walks this season as well as a 1.22 WHIP. Davies is 1-0 with three strikeouts and a 2.25 ERA in one start against Pittsburgh this year.
Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 5.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.78 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.07 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.32, along with a WHIP of 1.34 and a K-per-9 of 9.80.
Pirates hitters have slashed .258/.317/.410 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Pittsburgh’s hitters have been paced by first baseman Josh Bell and right fielder Starling Marte. Bell is slashing .333/.396/.684 with 18 home runs, 56 RBIs and 45 runs scored, while Marte has a .279 average with seven homers, 26 RBIs, 35 runs and 10 stolen bases.
For the home team, Milwaukee’s pitchers have given up 4.9 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starters have a 4.60 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.51 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 10.0 K/9. In 26 games against NL Central foes, Brewers starters have an ERA of 5.63 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.32.
Milwaukee’s hitters have put up 5.0 runs per contest, including 5.6 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .272/.324/.444 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.
Outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain have led the way for the Brewers’ batters this year. Yelich is hitting .337/.442/.737 with 23 home runs, 52 RBIs, 49 runs and 14 stolen bases, while Cain’s line is .258/.315/.379 with four homers, 26 RBIs, 39 runs and six steals.
The Pirates have gained 6.7 units and are 24-21 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 24 of those games, compared to 19 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 1.8 units and are 21-25 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 22 of those games, as opposed to 23 that’ve gone under.
Pirates at Brewers Free MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh has logged 25 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Milwaukee has 15 XBH over its last five.
- Pittsburgh fielders have five errors over the last 10 games, compared to 11 errors for Milwaukee over its last 10.
- The Pirates have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Brewers have hit 21 over their last 10.
- The Pirates have a team OPS of .726 this season and an OPS of .740 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Brewers’ OPS sits at .784 overall and .781 against righties.
