Phoenix Suns vs. Sacramento Kings ATS Prediction 03/23/19

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The Phoenix Suns (17-56), 9.5-point underdogs, will be at the Golden 1 Center to meet the Sacramento Kings (35-36) in a Pacific Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 230 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Arizona at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 23, 2019.

Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings ATS Odds

The Kings hope to maintain momentum after comfortably covering the 8.5-point spread against the Dallas Mavericks in their last outing, 116-100. The Suns, on the other hand, were blown out by the Detroit Pistons, 118-98, and failed to cover as 7-point underdogs. The Sacramento game went 13 points under the projected point total of 229, while the Phoenix game finished 1.5 points under the projected point total of 217.5.

Sacramento dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.1 (above their season average of 22.6) and a free throw rate of 0.241 (above their season average of 0.179). Dallas was 16.4 and 0.174, respectively, for those same stats. Phoenix, meanwhile, did a great job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (21-26; 80.8 percent). Sacramento was led by Marvin Bagley III, who had 22 points and 12 rebounds. Meanwhile, Devin Booker was a key piece for Phoenix with 26 points and five rebounds.

The Kings lead the season series two games to one. The two teams combined for 221 points in their most recent game, which was under the projected point total of 231. Sacramento won 117-104, covering as a 9-point favorite. Getting to the free throw line was one of Sacramento’s biggest strengths. They had 44 free throw attempts, while Phoenix had 30. Bagley III was the game’s leading scorer with 32 points.

Matchups featuring the Suns tend to go under the projected point total (57.5 percent). Phoenix comes into the game with records of 17-56 straight up (SU) and 33-40 against the spread (ATS).

A little over half of Kings games have finished over the total. Additionally, Sacramento is 35-36 SU and 42-28-1 ATS.

Based on historical performance heading into this one, ball security could play a significant role in this showdown. Sacramento commits the fifth-fewest miscues in the league (turnover percentage of 12.6 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of Phoenix forces the fourth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 14.8 percent).

Phoenix Suns vs. Sacramento Kings Odds Pick

Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Kings, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Kings average 25.5 assists per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. The Suns rank 25th in assists allowed per game (25.9).
  • Sacramento ranks second in points off turnovers per game (19.5) while Phoenix ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.8).
  • The Suns rank fourth in three pointers allowed per game (29.7) while the Kings rank 28th (34.2).
  • Sacramento averages 8.5 steals per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Phoenix ranks 28th in steals allowed per game (9.1).
  • Sacramento ranks 14th in rebounds per game (45.6) while Phoenix ranks 28th (40.4).
  • The Kings rank first in fast break points per game (21.3) while the Suns rank 28th in fast break points allowed per game (16.2).
  • The Kings average 13.4 second chance points per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. The Suns rank last in second chance points allowed per game (15.3).
  • Phoenix averages 5.0 blocks per game, which ranks 17th in the NBA. Sacramento ranks 18th in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
  • Sacramento ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (51.8) while Phoenix ranks last in points allowed in the paint per game (52.8).
  • Phoenix is 5-1 when they allow under 100 points, while Sacramento is 10-0.
  • When reaching the century mark, the Suns are 16-36 and the Kings are 33-32.
  • Phoenix is 17-20 ATS on the road, while Sacramento is 24-12-1 ATS at home.
  • Of the Suns’ 37 road games, they have 19 unders and 18 overs.
  • The Kings have 21 unders, 15 overs and 1 push in 37 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Kings are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Suns are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Sacramento has 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push, while Phoenix has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • During their last five games, the Kings have scored an average of 120.0 points per game (5.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.8 points per game (0.0 below their season average).
  • The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 11.2, up from 9.1 for the season.