The Dallas Mavericks (28-44), 16-point underdogs, will try to slow down the Golden State Warriors (49-22) at ORACLE Arena. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 225.5 points and it will air on NBC Sports – Bay Area at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 23, 2019.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors ATS Odds
The Warriors come in on a high note after easily covering the 10.5-point spread against the Indiana Pacers in their last game, 112-89. The Mavericks, meanwhile, were topped by the Sacramento Kings, 116-100, and failed to cover as 8.5-point underdogs. The Golden State game went 17 points under the projected point total of 218, while the Dallas game finished 13 points under the projected point total of 229.
Golden State’s 0.567 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Indiana, who had a rate of 0.418. The Warriors’ mark was above their season average of 0.560, while the Pacers’ was below their season average of 0.530. Dallas, on the other hand, had a turnover percentage of 6.4 (better than their season average of 12.6). Golden State rallied around DeMarcus Cousins, who recorded 19 points and 11 rebounds. Luka Doncic, meanwhile played a key role for Dallas with 13 points and 10 rebounds.
The Warriors lead the season series two games to one. The two teams combined to score 233 points in their most recent game, which was over the projected point total of 227. Golden State won 119-114 but was unable to cover as a 6-point favorite. Golden State had a better turnover percentage (8.8 vs. 10.4). Dallas, on the other hand, did an excellent job of converting from the free throw line (22-29; 75.9 percent). Stephen Curry was the game’s top overall scorer with 48 points.
A little over half of the Mavericks’ games have finished under the total. Dallas has a solid record against the spread (40-31-1), despite being 28-44 straight up (SU).
Much like Dallas, Warriors games have gone under the total 53.5 percent of the time. Golden State has a solid 49-22 SU record, but they have difficulty covering the spread (30-40-1 ATS).
The productive offense of Golden State (first in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 114.3) will go head-to-head against the mid-tier defense of Dallas (18th in the league with a defensive efficiency of 109.0). The Warriors figure to have the advantage on that side of the ball. Moreover, the Mavericks, who rank fourth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.220), will square off against the Warriors, who rank 22nd in opponents’ FTA rate (0.208).
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Warriors average 46.3 rebounds per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 12th in rebounds allowed per game (44.6).
- Golden State ranks second in fast break points per game (19.3) while Dallas ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (16.4).
- The Mavericks average 35.8 three pointers per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Warriors rank 25th in three pointers allowed per game (33.5).
- Golden State ranks 14th in points off turnovers per game (16.6) while Dallas ranks 28th (14.8).
- Dallas ranks 24th in points in the paint per game (44.8) while Golden State ranks 29th (42.8).
- The Warriors rank first in blocks per game (6.5) while the Mavericks rank 26th (4.3).
- The Warriors rank 16th in steals per game (7.6) while the Mavericks rank 22nd in steals allowed per game (8.1).
- Dallas ranks 20th in second chance points per game (12.9) while Golden State ranks 22nd in second chance points allowed per game (13.9).
- Golden State ranks first in assists per game (29.2) while Dallas ranks 24th (22.8).
- In games where they allow below 100 points, Dallas is 10-4 and Golden State is 8-0.
- In games where they reach 100 points, the Warriors are 49-15 and the Mavericks are 27-34.
- Golden State is 13-21-1 ATS at home, while Dallas is 18-18 ATS on the road.
- The Mavericks have 18 unders, 17 overs and 1 push in 36 road games.
- The Warriors have 21 unders and 14 overs in 35 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Warriors are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Mavericks are 2-2-1.
- In their last five games, Golden State has 5 unders, while Dallas has 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Warriors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.2, up from 6.2 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 112.6 points per game (4.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 117.4 points per game (7.2 above their season average).
