Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat Free Prediction 03/15/19

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The NBA’s top shooting defense will be a 5-point favorite on the road at AmericanAirlines Arena, when the Milwaukee Bucks (51-17) challenge the Miami Heat (32-35). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 220 points and it will air on NBATV at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, March 15, 2019.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

Both teams covered as favorites in their last outing. The Heat (2-point favorites) defeated the Detroit Pistons 108-74, while the Bucks (10-point favorites) beat the New Orleans Pelicans 130-113. The Miami game finished 26 points under the projected point total of 208, while the Milwaukee game went 6 points over the projected point total of 237.

Milwaukee dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.247 (above their season average of 0.194) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.546 (below their season average of 0.551). For those same stats, New Orleans put up marks of 0.103 and 0.477, respectively. Miami, on the other hand, dominated every stat category in their game. They had a turnover percentage of 10.4 (better than their season average of 13.0) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.5 (above their season average of 25.6). For those same stats, Detroit recorded marks of 16.7 and 20.8, respectively. Hassan Whiteside led the way for Miami, contributing 13 points and 11 rebounds. Khris Middleton played a pivotal role for Milwaukee with 23 points, seven assists and five rebounds.

The Bucks evened the season series at one with a 124-86 blowout victory in their most recent matchup. Giannis Antetokounmpo put up a triple-double in the victory, with 12 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. The Bucks’ 6.3 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over the Heat, who had a mark of 16.0. The two teams combined for 210 points, which was under the projected point total of 218, and Milwaukee covered as a 9-point favorite.

Bucks games have gone under the total 51.5 percent of the time. Milwaukee heads into the game with records of 51-17 straight up (SU) and 40-26-2 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Milwaukee, just over half of Heat games have finished over the O/U total. Moreover, Miami owns records of 32-35 SU and 35-31-1 ATS.

The inefficient offense of Miami will face off against the elite defense of Milwaukee. The Heat rank 23rd in offensive efficiency, while the Bucks are first in defensive efficiency. The Bucks figure to have the advantage on that end of the court.

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank third in rebounds allowed per game (43.1) while the Bucks rank 14th (44.8).
  • Milwaukee ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while Miami ranks 26th (17.8).
  • The Heat rank 13th in three pointers attempted per game (32.2) while the Bucks rank last in three pointers allowed per game (35.2).
  • Milwaukee ranks second in steals allowed per game (6.9) while Miami ranks 18th (7.6).
  • Milwaukee ranks third in points in the paint per game (54.1) while Miami ranks 14th (48.9).
  • The Bucks rank sixth in fast break points per game (17.5) while the Heat rank 29th (9.7).
  • The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (23.0) while the Bucks rank 17th (24.7).
  • Milwaukee averages 6.0 blocks per game, which ranks second in the league. Miami ranks 12th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
  • Miami ranks sixth in second chance points per game (14.3) while Milwaukee ranks 28th (11.6).
  • Miami is 18-3 when they allow less than 100 points, while Milwaukee is 17-1.
  • In games where they reach 100 points, the Heat are 29-19 and the Bucks are 50-13.
  • Miami is 14-20-1 ATS at home, while Milwaukee is 21-13-2 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 20 of the Heat’s 35 home games, while 19 of the Bucks’ 36 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Milwaukee and Miami are both 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.4, down from 9.2 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 108.6 points per game (2.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 101.2 points per game (4.9 below their season average).