Don’t expect a fast-paced game when the Cleveland Cavaliers (16-49), 8.5-point underdogs, head to Miami to take on the Heat (30-34). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 213 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Ohio at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, March 8, 2019.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds
Both teams covered in their last game. The Heat (3.5-point underdogs) defeated the Charlotte Hornets, 91-84, while the Cavaliers (9.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Brooklyn Nets, 113-107. The Miami game finished 40 points under the projected point total of 215, while the Cleveland game went 7.5 points under the projected point total of 227.5.
Miami played a nearly flawless game. They had an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 37.5 (above their season average of 25.4) and a turnover percentage of 15.8 (worse than their season average of 13.0). For those same stats, Charlotte was 22.7 and 17.7, respectively. Cleveland, on the other hand, did a fantastic job of getting to and converting from the charity stripe (21-29; 72.4 percent). Hassan Whiteside had a good outing for Miami, recording 18 points and 15 rebounds. Cleveland was led by Kevin Love, who put up 24 points and 16 rebounds.
The Heat have won all three matchups against the Cavaliers this year. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to put up 194 points, which was under the projected point total of 207.5. Miami won 100-94 but was unable to cover as an 8.5-point favorite. One of Miami’s biggest advantages was getting to the charity stripe. They made 25 trips to the line, while Cleveland went just 13 times. Cedi Osman was the top overall scorer in the game with 29 points.
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Cavaliers games, with 34 overs compared to 30 unders. Cleveland holds records of 16-49 straight up (SU) and 30-34-1 against the spread (ATS).
A little over half of Heat games have also finished over the O/U total. Additionally, Miami is 30-34 SU and 33-30-1 ATS.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams face off. Miami ranks 26th in possessions per game (100.5) and Cleveland is 29th (98.5).
Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat Betting Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Cavaliers, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Cavaliers rank 26th in fast break points per game (10.2) while the Heat rank 29th (9.8).
- Miami ranks fifth in blocks per game (5.6) while Cleveland ranks last (2.5).
- The Heat rank eighth in rebounds per game (46.3) while the Cavaliers rank 25th (42.9).
- Cleveland ranks fifth in steals allowed per game (7.0) while Miami ranks 18th (7.7).
- Cleveland averages 13.6 second chance points per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. Miami ranks 17th in second chance points allowed per game (13.5).
- The Heat rank second in assists allowed per game (22.8) while the Cavaliers rank 20th (25.2).
- The Heat rank 20th in points off turnovers per game (15.8) while the Cavaliers rank 28th (13.9).
- Miami ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.5) while Cleveland ranks 20th (50.4).
- In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Miami is 17-3 and Cleveland is 6-3.
- The Cavaliers are 14-24 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 27-18.
- Miami is 12-19-1 ATS at home, while Cleveland is 15-15-1 ATS on the road.
- Of the Cavaliers’ 31 road games, they have 16 unders, 14 overs and 1 push.
- The Heat have 18 overs and 14 unders in 32 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Cleveland and Miami have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Heat are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Cavaliers are 3-2.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 113.2 points per game (7.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 106.2 points per game (0.0 below their season average).
- The Cavaliers’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.8, down from 9.6 for the season.
