Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns ATS Prediction 03/04/19

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The league’s top shooting defense will be on the road at Talking Stick Resort Arena, when the Milwaukee Bucks (48-15) go head-to-head with the Phoenix Suns (13-51). The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, March 4, 2019, and will air on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin.

Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns ATS Odds

Both teams covered in their last game. The Suns (7-point underdogs) defeated the Los Angeles Lakers, 118-109, while the Bucks (5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Utah Jazz, 115-111. The Phoenix game finished 7 points under the projected point total of 234, while the Milwaukee game finished 3 points over the projected point total of 223.

Phoenix played a nearly flawless contest. They had an absurd free throw rate of 0.447 (above their season average of 0.193) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.553 (above their season average of 0.512). Los Angeles recorded marks of 0.169 and 0.528, respectively, for those same stats. Milwaukee, on the other hand, did a terrific job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (22-30; 73.3 percent). Deandre Ayton played well for Phoenix with 26 points and 10 rebounds. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way for Milwaukee, contributing 43 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists.

In their first matchup this year, Devin Booker led the Suns to a 116-114 win. He put up 29 points and seven assists. The two teams combined to score 230 points, which was just under the projected point total of 232.5, and Phoenix covered as a 14-point underdog. The Suns’ turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Bucks. Phoenix had a rate of 9.9, while Milwaukee posted a mark of 12.3.

Of the Bucks’ 63 games, 33 have finished under the total. Milwaukee comes into the contest with records of 48-15 straight up (SU) and 37-24-2 against the spread (ATS).

Coinciding with Milwaukee, a little over half of Suns games have finished under the total. Moreover, Phoenix is 13-51 SU and 27-37 ATS.

The Bucks’ Khris Middleton has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 21 points,7.0 rebounds,4.6 assists per game. Meanwhile, Kelly Oubre Jr. has averaged 20 points,2.0 steals during that same time frame for the Suns.

The inefficient offense of Phoenix will square off against the stingy defense of Milwaukee. The Suns currently rank 28th in offensive efficiency, while the Bucks are first in defensive efficiency. The Bucks figure to have the advantage on that side of the ball.

Bucks at Suns Betting Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Bucks average 26.2 assists per game, which ranks sixth in the league. The Suns rank 29th in assists allowed per game (26.2).
  • Milwaukee ranks first in rebounds per game (49.1) while Phoenix ranks last (40.1).
  • The Suns rank fourth in three pointers allowed per game (29.4) while the Bucks rank last (35.2).
  • Milwaukee ranks first in fast break points allowed per game (10.1) while Phoenix ranks 27th (16.7).
  • Milwaukee ranks fourth in second chance points allowed per game (11.4) while Phoenix ranks 29th (15.2).
  • The Bucks rank second in points allowed in the paint per game (41.8) while the Suns rank 29th (53.1).
  • The Bucks rank second in steals allowed per game (6.9) while the Suns rank 27th (9.1).
  • Milwaukee ranks second in blocks per game (6.1) while Phoenix ranks 18th (4.9).
  • Milwaukee ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while Phoenix ranks 29th (19.8).
  • Phoenix is 4-1 when they allow under 100 points, while Milwaukee is 16-1.
  • The Suns are 12-33 when they score above 100 points, while the Bucks are 47-11.
  • Milwaukee is 20-11-2 ATS on the road, while Phoenix is 14-17 ATS at home.
  • The Bucks have 18 unders and 15 overs in 33 road games.
  • The Suns have 18 unders and 13 overs in 31 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Bucks are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Suns are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Milwaukee has 4 overs and 1 under, while Phoenix has 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 128.0 points per game (10.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 121.8 points per game (13.7 above their season average).
  • The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.6, down from 9.8 for the season.