The Denver Nuggets (42-18) and their outstanding offense will be 6-point favorites when they welcome the Utah Jazz (34-26) and their exceptional defense. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 223.5 points and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, February 28, 2019.
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds
The Nuggets defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game, 121-112, covering as 3.5-point favorites. The Jazz, on the other hand, topped the Los Angeles Clippers, 111-105, but failed to cover as 11.5-point favorites. The Denver game finished 5.5 points under the projected point total of 238.5, while the Utah game finished 1.5 points over the projected point total of 214.5.
The Jazz had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 28.0 (above their season average of 22.3) and held the Clippers to an effective field goal percentage of 0.420 (below their season average of 0.524). Meanwhile, Denver’s 0.295 free throw rate was their largest advantage over Oklahoma City, who had a mark of 0.168. The Nuggets’ mark was above their season average of 0.179, while the Thunder’s was below the 0.200 mark opponents have averaged against Denver this season. Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver, putting up 36 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds. Meanwhile, Rudy Gobert played a pivotal role for Utah with 20 points and 13 rebounds.
The Jazz evened the season series at one with a 114-108 victory in their most recent game. Mitchell scored a game-high 35 points. One of Utah’s biggest advantages was getting to the charity stripe. They made 27 trips to the line, while Denver went 20 times. The two teams combined for 222 points, which was over the projected point total of 216.5, and Utah covered as a 4-point favorite.
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Jazz games, with 31 overs compared to 28 unders. Utah holds records of 34-26 straight up (SU) and 31-26-2 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Utah, a little over half of Nuggets games have finished under the O/U total. Further, Denver owns records of 42-18 SU and 33-27 ATS.
The Jazz’s Donovan Mitchell has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 26 points,5.4 rebounds,4.0 assists per game. Meanwhile, Paul Millsap has averaged 14 points,11.0 rebounds,2.0 steals,1.2 blocks during that same time frame for the Nuggets.
The game should be a battle of strength against strength as the productive offense of Denver takes on the stingy defense of Utah. The Nuggets rank fourth in offensive efficiency, while the Jazz are third in defensive efficiency.
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (53.4) while the Jazz rank 14th (48.7).
- Utah ranks third in blocks per game (5.8) while Denver ranks 24th (4.5).
- The Jazz rank second in three pointers allowed per game (28.2) while the Nuggets rank 16th (32.3).
- Denver ranks 12th in steals allowed per game (7.5) while Utah ranks 25th (8.8).
- Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.6) while Utah ranks 12th (13.5).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.9) while the Jazz rank 22nd (17.7).
- The Nuggets rank 16th in fast break points per game (12.8) while the Jazz rank 28th (9.8).
- Denver leads the league with 41.8 rebounds allowed per game while Utah is second with 42.7 rebounds allowed per game.
- Utah ranks first in assists allowed per game (21.3) while Denver ranks 17th (24.7).
- Utah is 15-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Denver is 19-1.
- The Nuggets are 40-13 when they score over 100 points, while the Jazz are 32-15.
- Denver is 22-9 ATS at home, while Utah is 15-14-1 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 17 of the Nuggets’ 31 home games, while 16 of the Jazz’s 30 road games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- The Jazz are 5-0 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 4-1.
- In their last five games, Utah has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Denver has 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Jazz’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.8, up from 3.4 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 116.2 points per game (3.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 103.4 points per game (3.5 below their season average).
