A seven-game home winning streak hangs in the balance for the Denver Nuggets (40-18), who will be 8.5-point favorites when they welcome the Los Angeles Clippers (33-27) to Pepsi Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 232 points and it can be seen on NBATV at 5 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 24, 2019.
Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets ATS Odds
Both teams covered as favorites in their last matchup. The Nuggets (6.5-point favorites) defeated the Dallas Mavericks 114-104, while the Clippers (3-point favorites) beat the Memphis Grizzlies 112-106. The Denver game finished 4 points under the projected point total of 222, while the Los Angeles game finished 1 point over the projected point total of 217.
The Clippers made 36 of their 42 free throws (85.7 percent) and held the Grizzlies to an effective field goal percentage of 0.417 (below their season average of 0.506). The Nuggets, meanwhile, had a fantastic offensive rebounding percentage of 37.5 (above their season average of 27.3) and had a turnover percentage of 10.2 (better than their season average of 11.5). Nikola Jokic played a key role for Denver with 19 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists. Los Angeles was led by Danilo Gallinari, who put up 23 points and eight rebounds.
The Nuggets lead the season series two games to one. In their most recent game, the two teams combined for 221 points, just under the projected point total of 226. Denver won 121-100, covering as a 6-point favorite. Denver’s rebounding was their biggest strength. The Nuggets had 15 offensive rebounds and 53 total rebounds, while the Clippers had eight and 38, respectively. Jokic put up a triple-double in the victory, with 18 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists.
Clippers games have a slight tendency to go over the O/U total (53.3 percent). Los Angeles holds records of 33-27 straight up (SU) and 33-27 against the spread (ATS).
Vegas has been spot on when setting the O/U total of Nuggets games, with an even split between overs and unders. Additionally, Denver owns records of 40-18 SU and 31-27 ATS.
The Clippers’ Montrezl Harrell has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 19 points,6.8 rebounds,3.6 assists,1.6 blocks per game. Meanwhile, Jokic has averaged 22 points,11.4 rebounds,7.8 assists,1.6 steals during that same time frame for the Nuggets.
The offensive glass could be a huge edge for Denver in this matchup. The Nuggets are among the league’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking first in offensive rebounding percentage at 27.5 percent. Meanwhile, Los Angeles ranks 24th in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 75.7 percent.
Clippers at Nuggets Betting Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets rank 16th in three pointers attempted per game (31.1) while the Clippers rank last (24.8).
- Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.8) while Los Angeles ranks 24th (45.6).
- The Nuggets average 53.3 points in the paint per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Clippers rank 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (50.7).
- Denver ranks second in assists per game (27.7) while Los Angeles ranks 22nd (23.3).
- Denver ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (12.0) while Los Angeles ranks 21st (14.8).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.7) while the Clippers rank 26th (18.1).
- The Nuggets rank 12th in steals per game (7.8) while the Clippers rank 28th (6.5).
- Denver ranks 15th in blocks allowed per game (5.1) while Los Angeles ranks 27th (6.0).
- Denver ranks second in second chance points per game (15.7) while Los Angeles ranks 23rd in second chance points allowed per game (14.1).
- Denver is 18-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Los Angeles is 6-1.
- The Clippers are 33-19 when they reach 100 points, while the Nuggets are 38-13.
- Denver is 20-9 ATS at home, while Los Angeles is 18-14 ATS on the road.
- The Clippers have 17 unders and 15 overs in 32 road games.
- The Nuggets have 17 overs and 12 unders in 29 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Clippers are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Los Angeles has 4 overs and 1 under, while Denver has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Clippers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.0, up from 0.5 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 115.4 points per game (3.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.2 points per game (5.2 above their season average).
