The Denver Nuggets (39-18) will travel to the American Airlines Center to square off against the Dallas Mavericks (26-31). The Nuggets opened as 3.5-point favorites. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 218.5 points and it begins at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday, February 22, 2019.
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds
Neither team was able to cover in their last outing. The Nuggets (7.5-point favorites) beat the Sacramento Kings, 120-118, while the Mavericks (3-point favorites) were defeated by the Miami Heat, 112-101. Both games went 5.5 points over their projected point totals (232.5 for the Denver game and 207.5 for the Dallas game).
Denver’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Sacramento. The Nuggets had a rate of 29.2 (above their season average of 27.3), while the Kings posted a mark of 20.4. Dallas, on the other hand, forced Miami into a turnover percentage of 17.0 (above their season average of 13.0). Dallas rallied around Luka Doncic, who finished with 18 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists. Nikola Jokic, meanwhile led the way for Denver with 20 points, 18 rebounds and 11 assists to register his 11th triple-double of the year.
In their first matchup this season, Jokic led the Nuggets to a 126-118 win. He recorded a double-double with 32 points and 16 rebounds. Denver covered as a 5-point favorite and the two teams combined to score 244 points, which was well over the projected point total of 208.5. Denver had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (30.8 vs. 14.6). Dallas, meanwhile, had a much better turnover percentage (7.5 vs. 13.3).
Of the Nuggets’ 57 games, 29 have finished over the total. Denver heads into the contest with records of 39-18 straight up (SU) and 30-27 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Denver, Mavericks games have finished under the total 54.4 percent of the time. Moreover, Dallas is 26-31 SU and 35-22 ATS.
The physical Dallas offense could be living from the free throw line in this battle. The Mavericks currently rank fourth in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.223, while Denver is among the league’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 16th-ranked FTA rate of 0.195).
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets rank first in rebounds allowed per game (41.8) while the Mavericks rank 10th (44.0).
- Denver ranks sixth in fast break points allowed per game (12.0) while Dallas ranks 29th (17.1).
- The Nuggets rank 12th in steals allowed per game (7.4) while the Mavericks rank 26th (8.4).
- Dallas ranks third in three pointers attempted per game (35.5) while Denver ranks 17th in three pointers allowed per game (32.2).
- Denver ranks second in second chance points per game (15.5) while Dallas ranks 13th (13.5).
- The Nuggets rank second in assists per game (27.6) while the Mavericks rank 25th (22.6).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.7) while the Mavericks rank 16th (17.0).
- Denver ranks 23rd in blocks per game (4.5) while Dallas ranks 26th (4.4).
- Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (53.4) while Dallas ranks 23rd (45.3).
- Denver is 18-1 when they allow below 100 points, while Dallas is 10-3.
- In games where they score over 100 points, the Nuggets are 37-13 and the Mavericks are 25-25.
- Denver is 10-18 ATS on the road, while Dallas is 20-9 ATS at home.
- The total has gone under in 16 of the Mavericks’ 29 home games, while 16 of the Nuggets’ 28 road games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Denver and Dallas have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Mavericks are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 1-4.
- During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 102.6 points per game (6.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.6 points per game (0.9 above their season average).
- The Nuggets have been outscored by an average of 4.0 points in their last five games. For the season, Denver has defeated opponents by an average of 4.9 points.
