The Denver Nuggets (26-11) and the Houston Rockets (22-16) face off at Toyota Center. The Nuggets are a 1-point underdog and look to prolong their five-game winning streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 215 points and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, January 7, 2019.
Denver Nuggets vs. Houston Rockets ATS Odds
The Nuggets come in on a high note after covering the 9-point spread against the Charlotte Hornets in their last contest, 123-110. The Rockets, on the other hand, were beaten by the Portland Trail Blazers, 110-101, and were unable to cover as 2-point underdogs. The Denver game finished 15 points over the projected point total of 218, while the Houston game went 8 points under the projected point total of 219.
The Nuggets had a ridiculously low turnover percentage of 5.9 (better than their season average of 12.1) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.7 (above their season average of 27.8). Houston, meanwhile, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.542 vs. 0.505). Houston was lifted by James Harden, who had 38 points, seven assists and five rebounds. Nikola Jokic, meanwhile played well for Denver, recording 39 points, 12 rebounds and six assists.
In their first matchup this season, Harden led the Rockets to a 109-99 win. He registered a double-double with 22 points and 11 assists. Houston covered as a 5-point underdog and the two teams combined for 208 points, which was under the projected point total of 217.5. One of Houston’s biggest strengths was getting to the charity stripe. They made 26 trips to the line, while Denver went 16 times.
Games featuring the Nuggets have a slight tendency to finish under the total (54.1 percent). Denver heads into the contest with records of 26-11 straight up (SU) and 21-16 against the spread (ATS).
Of the Rockets’ 38 games, 20 have finished over the O/U total. Further, Houston is 22-16 SU and 19-18-1 ATS.
The Nuggets’ Jokic has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 19 points,9.8 assists,9.6 rebounds,1.4 steals per game. Meanwhile, Harden has averaged 43 points,9.4 assists,7.4 rebounds,1.6 steals,1.2 blocks during that same time frame for the Rockets.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Houston currently ranks 28th in possessions per game (98.8) and Denver is 25th (100.4). Additionally, the Nuggets, who rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.9 percent), will square off against the Rockets, who rank 25th in defensive rebounding percentage (75.4 percent).
Denver Nuggets vs. Houston Rockets Odds Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- Denver ranks second in assists per game (27.2) while Houston ranks 27th (21.1).
- The Nuggets rank first in second chance points per game (15.9) while the Rockets rank 17th in second chance points allowed per game (13.5).
- Denver averages 8.4 steals per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. Houston ranks 21st in steals allowed per game (8.2).
- Denver leads the league with 42.2 rebounds allowed per game while Houston is fourth with 43.1 rebounds allowed per game.
- The Nuggets rank sixth in points in the paint per game (51.8) while the Rockets rank 26th (42.9).
- The Rockets average 5.3 blocks per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 18th in blocks allowed per game (5.3).
- Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (42.7) while Denver ranks 17th (30.9).
- In games where they allow less than 100 points, Denver is 13-1 and Houston is 6-2.
- The Nuggets are 25-7 when they reach 100 points, while the Rockets are 20-9.
- Houston is 11-6-1 ATS at home, while Denver is 8-10 ATS on the road.
- In 18 road games, the Nuggets have 10 unders and 8 overs.
- The Rockets have 12 overs and 6 unders in 18 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Rockets are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Houston has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Denver has 4 overs and 1 under.
- During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 116.8 points per game (6.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.4 points per game (3.4 above their season average).
- The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.2, up from 5.4 for the season.
