The Miami Heat (7-11), 12-point underdogs, will have their chance to upend the NBA’s top team when they challenge the Toronto Raptors (16-4) at Scotiabank Arena. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 218.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Seattle at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 25, 2018.
Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors ATS Odds
Both teams covered as favorites in their last game. The Raptors (10.5-point favorites) defeated the Washington Wizards 125-107, while the Heat (4-point favorites) beat the Chicago Bulls 103-96. The Toronto game went 1.5 points over the projected point total of 230.5, while the Miami game went 14 points under the projected point total of 213.
Miami played a nearly perfect game. They had a turnover percentage of 12.2 (better than their season average of 13.5) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.483 (below their season average of 0.502). Chicago was 14.9 and 0.410, respectively, for those same stats. Meanwhile, Toronto’s 0.586 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Washington, who had a mark of 0.441. The Raptors’ mark was above their season average of 0.548, while the Wizards’ was below their season average of 0.511. Toronto rallied around Kawhi Leonard, who put up 27 points and 10 rebounds. Hassan Whiteside, meanwhile fueled Miami with 18 points and 10 rebounds.
The Heat edged out the Raptors in this series last year, taking two out of three contests. In the most recent game, Miami won 116-109. Miami won the rebounding battle. The Heat had more offensive rebounds (19 vs. nine) and total rebounds (56 vs. 47). This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.
Vegas is known to place the total low when the Heat are involved, as 11 of their 18 games have ended over the projected point total. Miami holds records of 7-11 straight up (SU) and 7-11 against the spread (ATS).
Much like Miami, games including the Raptors also have a tendency to go over the total (65.0 percent). Further, Toronto is 16-4 SU and 11-9 ATS.
Looking at effective field goal percentage, this appears to be a matchup of two heavyweights. The elite Toronto offense ranks third in the NBA in that metric at 0.550, while the stingy Miami defense is ranked fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.502).
Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors Odds Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Raptors, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Raptors rank 5 in points in the paint per game (53.4) while the Heat rank 15 (46.77777777777778).
- Toronto ranks fifth in steals per game (8.7) while Miami ranks 25th (6.7).
- The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (21.3) while the Raptors rank 21st (24.1).
- Toronto ranks 12th in second chance points per game (14.3) while Miami ranks 27th in second chance points allowed per game (16.5).
- Toronto ranks 8 in rebounds per game (47.25) while Miami ranks 19 in rebounds allowed per game (45.888888888888886).
- The Raptors rank seventh in points off turnovers per game (19.2) while the Heat rank 25th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.5).
- The Heat rank 1 in blocks per game (6.833333333333333) while the Raptors rank 13 (5.4).
- Miami averages 33 three pointers per game, which ranks 10 in the NBA. Toronto ranks 13 in three pointers allowed per game (30.9).
- Toronto ranks third in fast break points per game (18.7) while Miami ranks 21st (11.3).
- Toronto is 3-0 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Miami is 3-1.
- In games where they score more than 100 points, the Raptors are 15-4 and the Heat are 6-8.
- Toronto is 5-5 ATS at home, while Miami is 4-4 ATS on the road.
- In 8 road games, the Heat have 5 overs and 3 unders.
- The Raptors have 8 overs and 2 unders in 10 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Raptors are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Toronto has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Miami has 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Raptors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 13.6, up from 8.9 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 100.6 points per game (7.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.8 points per game (5.6 below their season average).
