Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions: Week 4 ATS Pick

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The Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) and Detroit Lions will square off indoors at Ford Field. This early afternoon game gets going at 1:00 p.m. ET and FOX is in line to televise the action.

Betting Preview: Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Detroit is entering this game as the underdog and is currently getting 6.5 points. The Chiefs are also receiving -260 moneyline odds while the Lions are +220. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 54 points, and if one squad can catch a lucky break early on, it’ll probably create a worthy live betting opportunity.

With the game’s over/under set originally at 53, Sharp bettors are apparently taking the over.

Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Chiefs have gained 3.0 units and the Lions are ahead 2.5 units.

The Chiefs are 3-0 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Lions are 2-0-1 SU.

The Chiefs are looking to remain unbeaten after a 33-28 victory over Baltimore in Week 3 in which Patrick Mahomes completed 27 passes on 37 attempts for 374 yards and three touchdowns. Darrel Williams (62 rushing yards on nine attempts) and LeSean McCoy (54 yards on eight carries, one TD) provided the ground attack while Travis Kelce (seven receptions, 89 yards) and Sammy Watkins (five catches, 64 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Detroit just put together a 27-24 win over Philadelphia a week ago. The team’s defensive unit let the Eagles rush for 127 yards on 30 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Miles Sanders had a good outing in the loss, recording 53 rushing yards on 13 attempts, along with 73 yards on two catches for Philadelphia. For Detroit, Matthew Stafford completed 18-of-32 passes for 201 yards and one touchdown. Kerryon Johnson (36 yards on 20 rush attempts, one TD) handled the running game as Marvin Jones Jr. (six receptions, 101 yards, one TD) and Danny Amendola (four catches, 37 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Kansas City’s run the ball on 39.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Detroit has a rush percentage of 45.1 percent. The Chiefs have produced 94.7 rush yards/game and have two scores on the ground this year. The Lions are logging 98.7 rushing yards per game and have just one rush TD.

The Chiefs offense has tallied a superb 398.3 yards per contest in the air overall and has 10 passing TDs so far. The Lions have put up 277 pass yards per game and have six total pass score.

Defensively, Kansas City has allowed 137.7 rush yards and 271.7 pass yards per game. The Detroit D has allowed 286.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 125.3 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Chiefs have given up an ANY/A of 5.94 to opposing QBs, while the Lions are yielding an ANY/A of 5.91.

Offensively, Mahomes has amassed 752 passing yards this year, and has completed 74 percent of his 70 attempts with six passing scores and has yet to throw an interception. He has a sparkling 12.13 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 11.18 over the last two outings.

In the home locker room, Matthew Stafford has completed 45-of-77 passes for 586 yards, four TDs and zero INTs. Stafford’s ANY/A stands at 8.03 for the season and 6.71 across his last two games.

Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions Betting Pick

SU Winner: Chiefs, ATS Winner: Lions, O/U: Under

Betting Notes

  • The Chiefs offense has recorded eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Lions have put up one such play.
  • The Kansas City defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Detroit has given up four such plays.
  • The Kansas City offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Detroit has created one such runs.
  • The Chiefs defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Lions have given up zero such runs.
  • The Detroit defensive unit has recorded nine sacks on the year while Kansas City has seven.
  • Kansas City has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last two matchups.
  • Detroit has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last two.