Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan Wolverines: College Football Free Betting Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

In a game that features two squads that are nationally ranked in the Top 15, the No. 15 Wisconsin Badgers (+8) are gearing up to pay a visit to their conference nemesis Michigan Wolverines (-8) at Michigan Stadium. ABC will broadcast the action and the game is scheduled to get underway at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Michigan Wolverines vs. Wisconsin Badgers

In this Saturday Big Ten game, Michigan is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 8 points. The Badgers are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Wolverines are -330. Some good live betting possibilities might present themselves during the showdown.

The public has been siding with the Wolverines. This game’s line opened at -7.

Each of these teams has been profitable this year as the Badgers have gained 2.0 units and the Wolverines are up 1.4 units.

The Badgers are 4-1 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against conference opponents. The Wolverines are 5-1 SU overall and 3-0 SU in conference play.

The Badgers are coming off a resounding 41-24 victory over Nebraska last week. Alex Hornibrook completed just 13 passes on 24 attempts for 163 yards and one touchdown. Jonathan Taylor (221 yards on 24 rush attempts, three TDs) and Taiwan Deal (74 yards on 10 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the win while Jake Ferguson (four receptions, 47 yards, one TD) and Taylor (three catches, 60 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Michigan is coming off of a 42-21 win over Maryland. The defense allowed the Terrapins to run for 147 yards on 37 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Tayon Fleet-Davis was a bright spot in the loss, recording 63 rushing yards on 11 attempts for Maryland. For Michigan, Shea Patterson completed 19-of-27 passes for 282 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Karan Higdon (103 yards on 25 rush attempts) mounted the ground game in the win as Zach Gentry (seven receptions, 112 yards) and Grant Perry (three catches, 24 yards) led the receiving attack.

Wisconsin has run the ball on 66.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Michigan has an overall rush percentage of 60.4 percent. The Badgers have produced 287.0 rush yards per game (including 290.0 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 14 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Wolverines are putting up 199.8 rush yards per game (212.0 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.

The Badgers offensive scheme has averaged 193.2 yards through the air overall (184.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has eight passing TDs so far. The Wolverines have recorded 220.8 pass yards per game (232 in the Big 10) and have 12 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Wisconsin has allowed 130.2 rush yards and 219.6 pass yards per game. The Michigan defense has allowed 134.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 96.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wolverines are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.05 to opponents, while the Badgers have given up a 6.93 ANY/A.

Offensively, Hornibrook has amassed 758 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 56-of-92 attempts with four passing scores and two interceptions. He’s got a 7.12 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.94 over the past two outings.

The Badgers will probably try to control the pace by feeding their running backs early and often. Jonathan Taylor (736 rush yards, eight rush TDs), Garrett Groshek (142 rush yards, one receiving TD), and Taiwan Deal (199 rush yards, three rush TDs) have delivered in the Wisconsin offensive scheme.

In the home locker room, Shea Patterson has completed 80-of-114 passes for 991 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs. Patterson’s ANY/A stands at 8.32 for the season and 9.40 over his last two outings.

The Wolverines should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Karan Higdon (seven receiving yards), Zach Gentry (zero rush yards, 260 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Nico Collins (zero rush yards, 192 receiving yards, one TD) have seen plenty of touches lately.

These two programs faced off last year with the final outcome being a 24-10 win for Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Pick

SU Winner: Michigan, ATS Winner: Michigan

Team Betting Notes

  • The Michigan offense has lost one fumble this season while Wisconsin has lost three.
  • The Michigan defensive unit has produced 18 sacks on the year while Wisconsin has just five.
  • Wisconsin, as a team, has produced 5.80740740740741 yards per carry over its past three contests and 6.3 over its last two.
  • Michigan has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.3 over its last two.
  • Over its last three matchups, Michigan is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Wisconsin was favored by 19 points in its last game and the O/U was 59.5. The over cashed and Wisconsin did not cover in the 41-24 win over Nebraska.
  • Over its last three matches, Wisconsin is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Michigan was favored by 18 points in its last match and the O/U was set at 44.5. The over cashed and Michigan covered in that 42-21 victory over Maryland.