Week 7 Free Pick – Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

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The Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) are heading west to face their AFC West foe Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The game is scheduled to kick off at 8:20 p.m. ET and FOX will televise the action.

Thursday NightBetting Preview: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

In this Thursday AFC game, Kansas City is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 5.5 points. The Chiefs are also receiving -220 moneyline odds while the Broncos are +180. If one side can get out in front early it’ll result in a nice betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 50.5 points.

The Chiefs are down 1.0 unit this season and 3-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 3-2.

The Broncos have lost 3.3 units this year. The team is 2-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-3.

The Chiefs have gone 4-2 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against AFC West opponents. The Broncos are 2-4 SU overall and 1-1 SU against divisional foes.

Kansas City comes into this one on a two-game unbeaten streak while Denver has come up short in its last two in a row. The Chiefs are looking to get back in stride after a 31-24 defeat to Houston in Week 6Their defense allowed the Texans to eat up the clock by rushing for 192 yards on 41 attempts, including three rush TDs. Carlos Hyde logged a productive day for the Texans in that one with 116 rushing yards and a score on 26 attempts. Offensively, Patrick Mahomes completed only 19-of-35 passes for 273 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. LeSean McCoy (44 yards on eight rush attempts) spearheaded the ground attack in the loss. Tyreek Hill (five receptions, 80 yards, two TDs) and Mecole Hardman (four catches, 45 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Denver just picked up a blowout 16-0 win over Tennessee last week. The defense did its job in the victory, holding the Titans to only 207 passing yards and 39 yards on the ground. Adam Humphries was a bright spot in the defeat, recording 47 yards and a score on six catches for Tennessee. For Denver, Joe Flacco completed 18-of-28 passes for 177 yards and one interception. Phillip Lindsay (70 yards on 15 rush attempts, one TD) and Royce Freeman (34 yards on 11 carries) mounted the ground game in the win while Freeman (five receptions, 42 yards) and Courtland Sutton (four catches, 76 yards) led the receiving attack.

Kansas City has run the ball on 34.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Denver has a rush percentage of 45.4 percent. The Chiefs have run for 82.7 yards per game (including 31 per game versus West opponents) and have five scores via handoffs this year. The Broncos are averaging 116 rush yards per game (143 in conference) and have four total rushing TDs.

If the results so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Chiefs might have the more disruptive lines up front, since their offensive line has yielded only 26 sacks while the D-line logged 52 sacks. The Broncos offensive line has allowed 34 sacks and their defense has logged only 44 sacks.

The Chiefs offensive scheme has tallied a superb 350.7 yards/game in the air overall (443 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing scores so far. The Broncos have put up 239.2 pass yards per contest (225 against AFC competition) and have six total pass TDs.

Kansas City has let opponents run for an average of 161.8 yards and pass for 256.2 yards per game. The Denver defense has allowed 207.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 111.8 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.93 to opponents, while the Chiefs have given up a 5.90 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Mahomes has already put up 1,783 yards on the year. The signal-caller has completed 125-of-191 attempts with 13 scores through the air and only one interception. He has a 10.07 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 7.33 over the past two games.

Look for Mahomes to spread the ball around early and often in this one. Travis Kelce (212 receiving yards and one touchdown), Byron Pringle (44 yards) and Mecole Hardman (212 yards, two TDs) have all been heavily involved recently, getting 16, 11 and 10 targets over the past two games, respectively.

In the other locker room, Joe Flacco has completed 116-of-176 passes for 1,253 yards, five TDs and four INTs. Flacco’s ANY/A stands at 5.76 for the season and 4.92 over his last two games.

We expect the Broncos to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Courtland Sutton (385 receiving yards, two receiving TDs), Phillip Lindsay (283 rush yards, three rush TDs, 114 receiving yards) and Royce Freeman (223 rush yards, 139 receiving yards) have delivered significant production to the Denver offense.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos NFL Prediction

SU Winner: Chiefs, ATS Winner: Chiefs, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Chiefs offense has created 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Broncos have accounted for four such plays.
  • The Kansas City defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Denver has given up two such plays.
  • The Kansas City offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Denver has created four such runs.
  • The Chiefs defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Broncos have given up three such runs.
  • The Denver defensive unit has notched 12 sacks on the year while Kansas City has 11.
  • Kansas City, as a team, has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.6 over its last two.
  • Denver has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.7 over its last two.