Week 5 Free Pick – Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints

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The Washington Redskins and New Orleans Saints will face off on the dome of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. ESPN will broadcast the action and this important Monday Night showdown gets underway at 8:15 p.m. ET.

Thursday NightBetting Preview: Washington Redskins vs. New Orleans Saints

Washington is a live dog and is currently getting 7 points in this Monday NFC game. The Redskins are also receiving +220 moneyline odds while the Saints are -260. If one side gets out in front in the early stages it will create a worthy betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 52 points.

The game’s total has shifted higher after initially being set at 51. The opening line has remained consistent.

The Redskins are 2-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 0.1 units so far. The team has recorded an O/U mark of 1-2.

The Saints have lost 1.7 units this season. The team is 2-2 ATS and has an even O/U record of 2-2.

The Redskins are 2-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Saints are 3-1 SU.

When these two franchises met a year ago, New Orleans knocked off Washington by a field goal 34-31.

The Redskins hope to make it two in a row 31-17 victory over Green Bay on September 23. The Redskins defense allowed the Packers to rush for 100 yards on 17 attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, Alex Smith completed 12 passes for 220 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Adrian Peterson (120 rushing yards on 19 attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack. Jordan Reed (four receptions, 65 yards) and Jamison Crowder (four catches, 39 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

New Orleans just earned a 33-18 win over the Giants last week. Drew Brees completed 18-of-32 passes for 217 yards. Alvin Kamara logged an outstanding statline in the win. In addition to 134 yards on 19 rush attempts (and three TDs), Kamara also reeled in five receptions for 47 yards.

Washington’s run the ball on 50.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Orleans has a rush percentage of 36.8 percent. The Redskins have produced 137.7 rush yards/game and have three scores on the ground this year. The Saints are totaling 104.5 rush yards per game and have seven total rushing TDs.

If the results so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Saints ought to hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has generated 4.4 yards per carry while their defense has allowed a YPC of 3.2 to opponents. The Redskins have registered 4.2 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.5 to opponents.

The Redskins offensive scheme has averaged 255.7 yards through the air overall and has four passing scores so far. The Saints have put up 326.3 pass yards per contest and have eight total pass TDs.

Washington should possess the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 90.7 yards and pass for 199.0 yards per game. The New Orleans D has allowed 323.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 79.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Redskins are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.33 to opponents, while the Saints have given up an ugly 9.92 ANY/A.

Offensively, Smith has put up 475 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 66 percent of his 50 attempts with four scores through the air and one interception. He has a 9.47 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 7.01 over the past two outings.

We’re looking for Redskins to control the clock by feeding their running backs early and often. Along with Jordan Reed (113 yards, one TD), Adrian Peterson (216 rush yards, three rush TDs, 70 receiving yards) and Chris Thompson (82 rush yards, 63 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have brought significant production to the offensive gameplans for Washington.

Drew Brees has completed 83-of-112 passes for 899 yards, five TDs and zero INTs for New Orleans. His ANY/A sits at 8.15 for the season and 7.95 over his last two outings.

The Saints should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Alvin Kamara (212 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Michael Thomas (zero rush yards, 316 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Benjamin Watson (zero rush yards, 86 receiving yards) have seen plenty of touches recently.

Washington Redskins vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Pick

SU Winner: Saints, ATS Winner: Saints, O/U: Under

Betting Trends

  • Washington was the underdog by 2 points in its last game and the O/U was 46.5. The over cashed and Washington covered in the 31-17 win over Green Bay.
  • Washington, as a team, has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last two contests.
  • New Orleans has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over its last two.
  • The New Orleans offense has lost four fumbles this season while Washington has lost two.
  • In its last three matchups, Washington is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • New Orleans was getting 3 points in its last matchup and the Over/Under was 51.5. The under cashed and New Orleans covered in that 33-18 victory over the Giants.
  • Over its last three matchups, New Orleans is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Redskins offense has tallied two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Saints have accounted for one such play.
  • The Washington defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while New Orleans has given up six such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced two rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Washington offense has recorded 12 running plays of 10+ yards while New Orleans has accounted for 10 such plays.
  • The Redskins defense has allowed zero rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Saints have given up two such runs.
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