Week 5 Free Pick – Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The Bills (+3.5) are set to welcome the Tennessee Titans (-3.5) to New Era Field. This early afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 1:00 p.m. ET and CBS has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans

Buffalo is the home underdog in this AFC game and is currently getting 3.5 points. The Titans are also receiving -160 moneyline odds while the Bills are +140. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 38.5 points. Some good in-game betting opportunities may present themselves during this match.

The game’s total has swung downward after originally being set at 39.5. The opening line of 3.5 has yet to change.

The profitable Titans have gained 4.8 units so far and are 3-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 2-2.

The Bills have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 3.0 units. The team is 1-3 ATS and also has an even O/U record of 2-2.

The Titans are 3-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bills are 1-3 SU.

The Titans are coming off a 26-23 victory over Philadelphia last week. Marcus Mariota completed 30-of-43 passes for 344 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Mariota (46 rushing yards on 10 attempts, one TD) also led the ground attack in the win. Corey Davis (nine receptions, 161 yards, one TD) and Dion Lewis (nine catches, 66 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Buffalo was just shut out 22-0 by Green Bay in Week 4. The defense let the Packers kill the clock by rushing for 141 yards on 32 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Aaron Jones put up a solid showing in the win, recording 65 rushing yards and a score on 11 attempts for Green Bay. For Buffalo, Josh Allen completed 16-of-33 passes for 151 yards and two interceptions. Chris Ivory (15 yards on six rush attempts) led the ground game in the defeat while Charles Clay (four receptions, 40 yards) and Zay Jones (four catches, 38 yards) led the pass-catching corps.

Tennessee has run the ball on 49.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Buffalo has an overall rush percentage of 44.7 percent. The Titans have rushed for 109.0 yards/game and have two scores via handoffs this year. The Bills are logging 88.3 rushing yards per game and have three total rush TDs.

If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it appears the Titans ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has given up only 35 sacks while the D-line registered 43 sacks. The Bills, on the other hand, have given up 47 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 27 occasions.

The Titans offensive scheme has averaged 215.8 yards through the air overall and has four passing scores so far. The Bills have produced 172.5 pass yards per outing and have two total pass TDs.

Tennessee has let opponents run for an average of 118.0 yards and pass for 260.8 yards per game. The Buffalo defense has allowed 277.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 95.3 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Titans have given up an ANY/A of 6.13 to opposing QBs, while the Bills are yielding an ANY/A of 6.60.

Offensively, Mariota has put up 447 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 66 percent of his 59 attempts with two scores through the air and three interceptions. Mariota has a 5.40 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.37 over the last two games.

Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor and Dion Lewis have combined to account for 408 total yards over the last two outings.

Josh Allen has connected on 40-of-81 passes for 470 yards, one TD and four INTs for Buffalo. His ANY/A sits at a very poor 2.02 for the season and 2.78 across his past two games.

We also expect the Buffalo offense to spread things out this Sunday. Chris Ivory, Kelvin Benjamin and Josh Allen have collectively accounted for 262 total yards and two touchdowns as a trio over the last two games.

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills Betting Prediction

SU Winner: Bills, ATS Winner: Bills, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • Tennessee was getting 3 points in its previous game and the O/U was set at 41. The over cashed and Tennessee covered in the 26-23 triumph over Philadelphia.
  • Tennessee has produced 3.51648351648352 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.9 over its last two.
  • Buffalo has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.4 over its past two.
  • The Buffalo offense has lost one fumble this season while Tennessee has not lost any.
  • In its last three contests, Tennessee is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Buffalo was favored by 9 points in its last matchup and the O/U going into it was 44. The under cashed and Buffalo failed to cover in that 22-0 loss to Green Bay.
  • Over its last three matches, Buffalo is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Each team has produced two pass plays of 40+ yards. The Titans have have made three pass plays of 30+ yards while the Bills have accounted for four such plays.
  • The Tennessee defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Buffalo has given up one such play.
  • Both teams have produced one rushing play of 20+ yards and eight running plays of 10+ yards.
  • The Titans defense has allowed one rushing play of 20+ yards, while the Bills have given up three such runs.
  • The Tennessee defense has sacked opposing QBs 12 times this season. Buffalo has produced 10 sacks.