Week 5 Free Pick – Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The Dallas Cowboys (+4) aren’t traveling far to face the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. This Sunday Night showdown kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET and NBC has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

In this Sunday matchup, Houston has been projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 4 points. The Cowboys are also receiving +140 moneyline odds while the Texans are -160. This tilt should provide several decent in-game betting possibilities, and oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 44 points.

The under is receiving most of the early sharp action, as the game’s O/U was placed initially at 45.5.

The Cowboys have recorded 0.0 units so far in 2018 and are 1-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 1-3.

The hapless Texans have lost 4.1 units this season. The team is 1-3 ATS and has an even O/U record of 2-2.

The Cowboys have gone 2-2 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Texans are 1-3 SU.

The Cowboys just got a 26-24 victory over Detroit in Week 4 where Dak Prescott completed 17-of-27 passes for 255 yards and two touchdowns. Ezekiel Elliott (152 rushing yards on 25 attempts) led the running attack while Elliott (four receptions, 88 yards, one TD) and Cole Beasley (four catches, 53 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Houston just earned a 37-34 win over Indianapolis a week ago. Deshaun Watson completed 29-of-42 passes for 375 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Lamar Miller (49 rushing yards on 14 attempts) and Alfred Blue (31 yards on 13 carries) spearheaded the running game while Keke Coutee (11 receptions, 109 yards) and DeAndre Hopkins (10 catches, 169 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Dallas has run the ball on 46.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Houston has an overall rush percentage of 43.5 percent. The Cowboys have rushed for 145.3 yards per game and have two scores on the ground this year. The Texans are averaging 123.3 rush yards per game and have two total rushing TDs.

The Cowboys offense has logged 188.3 yards/contest in the air overall and has four passing scores so far. The Texans have recorded 311.5 pass yards per contest and have seven total pass TDs.

Defensively, Dallas should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 97.8 rush yards and 234.8 pass yards per game. The Houston defense has allowed 307.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 94.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Cowboys are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.67 to opponents, while the Texans have given up an 8.14 ANY/A.

Offensively, Prescott is up to 585 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has connected on 52-of-81 attempts with three scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. Prescott’s got a 6.54 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 4.90 over the last two games.

Look for a balanced attack offensively from Dallas in this one. Ezekiel Elliott (299 rushing yards, two rush TDs, 114 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown this season), Cole Beasley (139 receiving yards) and Geoff Swaim (57 receiving yards, one TD) have each played significant roles lately.

Deshaun Watson has completed 68-of-108 passes for 861 yards, five TDs and three INTs for Houston. His ANY/A stands at 6.22 for the season and 7.66 over his last two outings.

Look for Watson to attack all areas of the Dallas secondary. DeAndre Hopkins (357 receiving yards and two receiving TDs this season), Will Fuller V (162 receiving yards, two receiving TDs), and Keke Coutee (109 receiving yards) have collectively put up 514 receiving yards and three scores over the last two games, getting 22, 16, and 15 targets respectively over that stretch.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans NFL Prediction

SU Winner: Cowboys, ATS Winner: Cowboys, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The Dallas defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 14 times this year. Houston has produced 11 sacks.
  • Both teams have lost two fumbles this season.
  • The Cowboys offense has registered one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Texans have put up zero such plays.
  • The Dallas defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Houston has given up three such plays.
  • The Dallas offense has created two rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Houston has created one such run.
  • The Cowboys defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Texans have given up one such run.
  • As a team, Dallas has rushed for 6.16455696202532 yards per attempt across its last three games and 6.5 over its last two.
  • Houston has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.3 over its last two.