Week 5 Free Betting Preview – Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The Green Bay Packers (-1.5) are traveling east to battle their NFC North rival Detroit Lions at Ford Field. FOX owns the TV rights and kickoff will take place at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

In this Sunday NFC game, Green Bay is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 1.5 points. The Packers are also receiving -125 moneyline odds while the Lions are +105. There could be some good live betting opportunities while the matchup is underway, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 50 points.

The early action has been swaying toward the under. The game’s over/under was placed initially at 51.

The Packers are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 0.7 units this season. The team’s posted an O/U record of 3-1.

The Lions are down 2.5 units for moneyline bettors so far. They’re 3-1 ATS and also have an O/U record of 3-1.

The Packers have gone 2-1-1 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against NFC North opponents. The Lions are 1-3 SU overall and 0-0 SU against divisional foes.

The Packers want to make it two in a row 22-0 win over Buffalo in Week 4. Aaron Rodgers completed only 22-of-40 passes for 298 yards, as well as one TD and an interception. Aaron Jones (65 yards on 11 rush attempts, one TD) and Jamaal Williams (27 yards on 11 carries) led the ground attack in the win while Davante Adams (eight receptions, 81 yards) and Geronimo Allison (six catches, 80 yards) manned the receiving duties.

Detroit narrowly dropped a 26-24 game to Dallas last week. The defensive unit let the Cowboys eat up the clock by rushing for 183 yards on 35 attempts. Ezekiel Elliott was a force to be reckoned with, putting up 152 rushing yards on 25 attempts, along with 88 yards on four catches for Dallas. For Detroit, Matthew Stafford completed 24-of-30 passes for 307 yards and two touchdowns. Kerryon Johnson (55 yards on nine rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as Golden Tate (eight receptions, 132 yards, two TDs) and Kenny Golladay (four catches, 74 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Green Bay has run the ball on 35.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Detroit has a rush percentage of 33.5 percent. The Packers have produced 102.0 rush yards/game (including 83.5 per game versus North opponents) and have one touchdown via handoffs this year. The Lions are logging 98.0 rush yards per game (0.0 in conference) and have just one rushing TD.

It seems like the Lions should hold an edge when it comes to quarterback protection. Their offensive line has given up only six sacks while the D-line has registered 13 sacks. The Packers O-line has allowed 14 sacks and their defense has recorded only 13 sacks.

The Packers offensive scheme has tallied 296.3 yards/contest in the air overall (311.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has seven passing TD so far. The Lions have produced 304.0 pass yards per outing (0 against NFC competition) and have eight total pass score.

Green Bay has let opponents rush for an average of 107.8 yards and pass for 241.8 yards per game. The Detroit defense has given up 198.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 157.8 yards per game on the ground. The Packers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.46 to opposing QBs, while the Lions have given up a 6.52 ANY/A.

Offensively, Rodgers has amassed 865 passing yards this year, and has completed 64 percent of his 112 attempts with five passing scores and only one interception. Rodgers has a 7.14 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.97 over the last two games.

Geronimo Allison (213 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown this season), Ty Montgomery (56 rush yards, 86 receiving yards) and Davante Adams (233 receiving yards, two TDs) have each played big roles lately.

In the other huddle, Matthew Stafford has completed 85-of-129 passes for 940 yards, six TDs and four INTs. Stafford’s ANY/A stands at 6.28 for the year and 8.23 over his past two games.

Golden Tate (320 receiving yards, three receiving touchdowns this season), Kerryon Johnson (115 rush yards, one rush TD) and Kenny Golladay (277 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have combined for 494 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last couple of games.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Free Prediction

SU Winner: Lions, ATS Winner: Lions, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • Each team defense has created 13 sacks this year.
  • Detroit has lost one fumble in 2018 while the Green Bay offense has lost three.
  • The Packers offense has created four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Lions have put up two such plays.
  • The Green Bay defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Detroit has given up one such play.
  • The Green Bay offense has created one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while Detroit has created two such runs.
  • The Packers defense has allowed one rushing play of 20 yards or more, while the Lions have given up five such runs.
  • Detroit was favored by 3 points in its last matchup and the Over/Under was set at 44. The over cashed and Detroit failed to cover in the team’s 26-24 defeat to Dallas.
  • In its last three contests, Detroit is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Over its last three matchups, Green Bay is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Green Bay was favored by 9 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 44. The under cashed and Green Bay covered in the 22-0 triumph over Buffalo.
  • As a team, Green Bay has averaged 4.64383561643836 yards per carry across its past three games and 4.9 over its last two.
  • Detroit has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.8 over its past two.