Week 5 Free Betting Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) are set to pay a visit to the Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Arrowhead Stadium. This key early afternoon game will get going at 1:00 p.m. ET and CBS has the TV rights.

Week 5 Betting Preview: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 3 points in this AFC game. The Jaguars are also receiving +130 moneyline odds while the Chiefs are -150. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 51.5 points. Some good in-game betting possibilities may be unveiled during the matchup.

The game’s total has moved down after initially being set at 52.5. The opening line of -3 has yet to change.

The Jaguars are down 1.7 units this season and 3-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 2-2.

The Chiefs have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors so far, gaining 3.9 units. They’re 3-0 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-0.

The Jaguars are 3-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Chiefs are 4-0 SU.

The Jags hope to make it two in a row 31-12 victory over the Jets last week in which Blake Bortles completed 29 passes on 38 attempts for 388 yards, two scores and one interception. T.J. Yeldon (just 52 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) and Leonard Fournette (30 yards on 11 carries) led the ground attack in the win while Dede Westbrook (nine receptions, 130 yards) and Donte Moncrief (five catches, 109 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.

Kansas City enters this one after just earning a 27-23 win over Denver in Week 4. The team’s defensive unit let the Broncos rush for 159 yards on 22 attempts, including two rush TDs. Phillip Lindsay had a good showing in the defeat, recording 69 rushing yards and a score on 12 attempts for Denver. For Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes completed 28-of-45 passes for 304 yards and one touchdown. Kareem Hunt (121 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) mounted the ground attack in the win as Tyreek Hill (nine receptions, 54 yards) and Travis Kelce (seven catches, 78 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.

Jacksonville has run the ball on 41.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas City has a rush percentage of 43.4 percent. The Jaguars have run for 113.5 yards per game and have one score via handoffs this year. The Chiefs are putting up 113.0 rushing yards per game and have four total rush TDs.

The Jags offense has tallied 273.8 yards/game through the air overall and has seven passing score so far. The Chiefs have recorded 300.0 pass yards per game and have 14 total pass TDs.

Jacksonville appears to hold the upper hand in both areas of the defense. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 95.0 yards and pass for 183.3 yards per game. The Kansas City defense has allowed 343.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 123.3 yards per game on the ground. The Jags are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.91 to opposing QBs, while the Chiefs have given up a 7.52 ANY/A.

Offensively, Bortles has put up 940 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 66 percent of his 116 attempts with seven passing scores and three interceptions. He has a 7.78 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.71 over the last two games.

T.J. Yeldon (161 rushing yards, one rush TD, 79 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns on the year), Dede Westbrook (263 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Donte Moncrief (157 receiving yards, two TDs) have all played big roles lately.

In the home locker room, Patrick Mahomes has managed to complete 66-of-100 passes for 886 yards, 11 TDs and zero INTs. Mahomes’ ANY/A stands at 10.70 for the year and 8.03 across his last two outings.

We also expect the Kansas City offense to spread things out this Sunday. Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have collectively accounted for 523 total yards and four touchdowns over the last two outings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick

SU Winner: Jaguars, ATS Winner: Jaguars, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • Jacksonville was favored by 7 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 40.5. The over cashed and Jacksonville covered in the 31-12 win over the Jets.
  • Jacksonville has produced 4.11688311688312 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.0 over its last two.
  • Kansas City has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.1 over its last two.
  • Kansas City has lost one fumble this season while Jacksonville has let four get away.
  • In its last three contests, Jacksonville is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Kansas City was favored by 6 points in its previous game and the O/U going into it was 53. The under cashed and Kansas City failed to cover in the 27-23 victory over Denver.
  • In its last three contests, Kansas City is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • The Jaguars offense has registered two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Chiefs have put up three such plays.
  • The Jacksonville defense has yet to allow a passing play of 40 or more yards, while Kansas City has given up two such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced three rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Jacksonville offense has recorded 12 running plays of 10+ yards while Kansas City has accounted for nine such plays.
  • The Jaguars defense has allowed one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while the Chiefs have given up three such runs.
  • Each team defense has recorded 10 sacks this year.