Week 5 Free Betting Matchup – Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The Miami Dolphins (+6) are set to pay a visit to the Cincinnati Bengals (-6) at Paul Brown Stadium. This key early afternoon matchup is scheduled to get underway at 1:00 p.m. ET and CBS has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins

In this Sunday AFC game, Cincinnati is projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 6 points. The Dolphins are also receiving +190 moneyline odds while the Bengals are -230. This AFC tilt should provide several decent live betting opportunities, and oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 50.5 points.

Betting odds have swayed a bit from when they were first posted. The line opened at -6 and the game’s O/U was initially placed at 50.

Each of these teams has posted a good return this year as both the Dolphins and the Bengals have gained exactly 2.3 units so far.

The Dolphins are 3-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bengals are also 3-1 SU.

The Dolphins lost to New England 38-7 in a Week 4 blowout where the Dolphins completed 15-of-25 passes for 135 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Ryan Tannehill went 11-for-20 for 100 yards and one interception while Brock Osweiler completed four-of-five for 35 yards and one touchdown. Frank Gore (41 yards on 11 rushes) mounted the ground attack in the loss while Albert Wilson (four receptions, 19 yards) and Kenny Stills (three catches, 40 yards) shared the receiving duties.

Cincinnati is coming off of a 37-36 win over Atlanta in Week 4. The defensive secondary allowed the Falcons to air it out for 419 yards and three touchdowns. Julio Jones had a good showing in the loss for Atlanta, recording 173 yards and a score on nine catches. For Cincinnati, Andy Dalton completed 29-of-41 passes for 337 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Giovani Bernard (69 yards on 15 rush attempts, two TDs) handled the ground game in the win while Tyler Boyd (11 receptions, 100 yards) and A.J. Green (four catches, 78 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.

Miami’s run the ball on 47.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Cincinnati has an overall rush percentage of 34.9 percent. The Dolphins have produced 88.0 rush yards/game and have only one touchdown via handoffs this year. The Bengals are averaging 93.5 rushing yards per game and have four total rush TDs.

It appears that the Bengals ought to hold an advantage in the trenches, as their offensive line has given up just seven sacks while the D-line has registered 10 sacks. The Dolphins offensive line has allowed eight sacks and their defense has sacked opposing signal-callerss just six times.

The Dolphins offensive scheme has logged 218.5 yards per game through the air overall and has nine passing score so far. The Bengals have produced 299.3 pass yards per contest and have 11 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Miami appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 110.5 rush yards and 293.3 pass yards per game. The Cincinnati defense has given up 316.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 115.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Dolphins are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.25 to opponents, while the Bengals have given up a 6.96 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Tannehill has put up 498 yards on the year, and has completed 68 percent of his 71 attempts with four passing scores and three interceptions. Tannehill has a 4.74 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.17 over the last two games.

Expect Tannehill to spread the ball around early and often in this one. Kenny Stills (82 receiving yards and two touchdowns), Albert Wilson (87 yards, one TD) and Jakeem Grant (82 yards) have all been heavily involved recently.

On the other sideline, Andy Dalton has completed 74-of-111 passes for 845 yards, nine TDs and two INTs. Dalton’s ANY/A stands at 7.69 for the year and 5.58 over his past two outings.

Tyler Boyd, Giovani Bernard and A.J. Green have combined to account for 555 total yards and five touchdowns as a trio over the last two games.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals Free Prediction

SU Winner: Bengals, ATS Winner: Bengals, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Cincinnati defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 10 times this year. Miami has recorded six sacks.
  • Cincinnati has lost one fumble in 2018 while the Miami offense has let three get away.
  • The Dolphins offense has created three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Bengals have put up one such play.
  • The Miami defense has allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards, while Cincinnati has given up two such plays.
  • The Miami offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Cincinnati has created four such run.
  • The Dolphins defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bengals have given up one such run.
  • Cincinnati was favored by 3 points in its last match and the Over/Under going into it was 52. The over cashed and Cincinnati failed to cover in that 37-36 triumph over Atlanta.
  • Over its last three games, Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • In its last three games, Miami is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Miami was favored by 7 points in its previous game and the Over/Under going into it was 50.5. The under cashed and Miami did not cover in the 38-7 defeat to New England.
  • Miami has averaged 3.68253968253968 yards per carry across its last three outings and 3.0 over its last two.
  • Cincinnati has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.6 over its last two.