Week 4 Free Pick: New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The New Orleans Saints (-3.5) are heading northeast to face the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. This late afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 4:25 p.m. ET and CBS will broadcast the action.

Week 4 Betting Preview: New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants

In this Sunday NFC matchup, New Orleans is labeled as the favorite and is currently giving up 3.5 points. The Saints are also receiving -160 moneyline odds while the Giants are +140. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 49.5 points. Judging by how things are shaping up, this match will probably offer some live betting opportunities.

The game’s total has swung upward after opening at 49. The original spread (3.5) hasn’t shifted.

The Saints are down 2.7 units this season and 1-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 2-1.

The Giants are up 0.2 units in 2018. The team is 1-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-2.

The Saints are 2-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Giants are 1-2 SU.

The Saints made it two in a row after a 43-37 victory over Atlanta in Week 3. Drew Brees completed 39 passes on 49 attempts for 396 yards and three touchdowns. Alvin Kamara (66 rushing yards on 16 attempts) led the running attack in the win while Kamara (15 receptions, 124 yards) and Michael Thomas (10 catches, 129 yards) handled the receiving duties.

New York just earned a 27-22 win over Houston a week ago. The team’s defensive secondary allowed the Texans to air it out for 385 yards and two touchdowns. Will Fuller V had a good showing in the loss, recording 101 yards on five catches for Houston. For New York, Eli Manning completed 25-of-29 passes for 297 yards and two touchdowns. Saquon Barkley (82 rushing yards on 17 attempts, one TD) mounted the ground game in the win as Odell Beckham Jr. (nine receptions, 109 yards) and Sterling Shepard (six catches, 80 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.

New Orleans has run the ball on 32.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New York has an overall rush percentage of 37.9 percent. The Saints have produced 82.7 rush yards per game and have four scores via handoffs this year. The G-Men are putting up 87.7 rush yards per game and have two total rushing TDs.

If 2018 results can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Saints ought to hold an edge when it comes to applying pressure, since their offensive line has given up just 20 sacks while the D-line logged 42 sacks. The Giants, on the other hand, have given up 34 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 27 occasions.

The Saints offense has averaged a ridiculous 359.3 yards in the air overall and has eight passing TDs so far. The G-Men have put up 266.7 pass yards per contest and have three total pass scores.

New Orleans has let opponents run for an average of 84.3 yards and throw for 345.7 yards per game. The New York defense has allowed 240.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 111.3 yards per game on the ground. The G-Men are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.73 to opposing QBs, while the Saints have given up a staggering 11.77 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Brees has already put up 835 yards this year. He’s connected on 81 percent of his 94 attempts with six passing scores and has yet to throw an interception. Brees has a pristine 9.82 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.00 over the past two outings.

Eli Manning has managed to complete 48-of-66 passes for 521 yards, two TDs and one INT for New York. His ANY/A sits at 6.53 for the year and 6.57 over his past two outings.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants NFL Pick

SU Winner: Giants, ATS Winner: Giants, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The Saints offense has registered one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Giants have put up zero such plays.
  • The New Orleans defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while New York has given up one such play.
  • The New Orleans offense has created one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while New York has created two such run.
  • Both defenses have allowed one rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Saints have given up seven running plays of 10+ yards while the Giants have given up 10 such plays.
  • The New Orleans defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs six times this year. New York has recorded four sacks.
  • New Orleans has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last two games.
  • New York has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last two.
  • Over its last three matches, New York is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • New Orleans was favored by 2 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 54. The over cashed and New Orleans covered in the 43-37 victory over Atlanta.
  • In its last three games, New Orleans is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • New York was favored by 7 points in its previous match and the Over/Under was 44. The over cashed and New York failed to cover in the 27-22 victory over Houston.