Week 4 Free Betting Preview – Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The Miami Dolphins (+7) are heading north to face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Kickoff for this AFC East game is set for 1:00 p.m. ET and interested parties can tune in to the action on CBS.

Betting Preview: New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

Miami is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 7 points in this AFC game. The Dolphins are also receiving +230 moneyline odds while the Patriots are -280. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 48 points. If New England gets behind early on, it will probably create a nice in-game betting opportunity.

This game’s opening line was -8. The O/U hasn’t moved since it opened at 48.

The profitable Dolphins are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.3 units so far. The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 2-1.

The Patriots have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 3.0 units. They’re 1-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-2.

The Dolphins are 3-0 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against AFC East opponents. The Patriots are 1-2 SU overall and 0-0 SU against divisional foes.

The Dolphins are looking to remain undefeated following a 28-20 win over Oakland last week where the defense allowed the Raiders to pass for 345 yards while rushing for 109 yards. Jordy Nelson was on a different level for the Raiders in that one with 173 yards and a score on six catches. Offensively, Ryan Tannehill completed 17 passes on 23 attempts for 289 yards and three touchdowns. Frank Gore (only 12 rushing yards on six attempts) led the running attack while Kenny Stills (three receptions, 61 yards, one TD) and Danny Amendola (three catches, 42 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

New England just dropped a 26-10 game to Detroit in Week 3. The defense allowed the Lions to eat up the clock by running for 159 yards on 33 rush attempts. Kerryon Johnson had a productive showing, recording 101 rushing yards on 16 attempts for Detroit. For New England, Tom Brady completed 14-of-26 passes for 133 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Sony Michel (50 rushing yards on 14 attempts) spearheaded the running game while Rob Gronkowski (four receptions, 51 yards) and Chris Hogan (three catches, 31 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.

Miami has run the ball on 49.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New England has a rush percentage of 42.5 percent. The Dolphins have rushed for 98.7 yards/game (including 135.0 per game against East opponents) and have only one score on the ground this year. The Pats are averaging 97.7 rush yards per game (0.0 in conference) and have yet to record a rushing TD.

The Dolphins offensive scheme has tallied 246.3 yards/game in the air overall (168.0 per game against conference opposition) and has eight passing TD so far. The Pats have recorded 214.7 pass yards per game (0 in the AFC) and have six total pass score.

On the defensive side of the ball, Miami has allowed 89.0 rush yards and 299.7 pass yards per game. The New England D has allowed 271.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 143.3 yards per game on the ground. The Dolphins are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.76 to opposing QBs, while the Pats have allowed a 6.67 ANY/A.

Offensively, Tannehill has put up 519 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 37-of-51 attempts with five passing scores and two interceptions. He has a pristine 9.66 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 9.84 over the last two games.

In the other locker room, Tom Brady has completed 40-of-65 passes for 410 yards, four TDs and two INTs. Brady’s ANY/A stands at 5.46 for the season and 5.46 over his last two games.

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots NFL Pick

SU Winner: Patriots, ATS Winner: Dolphins, O/U: Over

Betting Trends

  • The Dolphins offense has produced three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Patriots have accounted for zero such plays.
  • The Miami defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while New England has given up one such play.
  • The Miami offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while New England has created zero such runs.
  • The Dolphins defense has allowed one rushing play of 20 yards or more, while the Patriots have given up two such runs.
  • The Miami defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks six times this season. New England has recorded four sacks.
  • As a team, Miami has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last two contests.
  • New England has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last two.
  • Over its last three matches, New England is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Miami was favored by 3 points in its previous game and the Over/Under was 46.5. The over cashed and Miami covered in the 28-20 triumph over Oakland.
  • Over its last three games, Miami is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • New England was getting 7 points in its last match and the Over/Under was set at 55.5. The under cashed and New England failed to cover in the 26-10 loss to Detroit.