Week 3 Free Betting Pick: New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

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The New York Jets (+18) are set to pay a visit to their AFC East foe New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. This early afternoon game is scheduled to begin at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to CBS.

Betting Preview: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

New York is a heavy live dog here and is currently getting 18 points from oddsmakers. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 47 points. Based on the way things are shaping up, this game will probably offer some live betting possibilities.

This game’s total hasn’t moved after being set initially at 47. Having said that, the line opened at -16 and has recently moved down to -18.

The Jets are down 1.4 units so far and 0-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U mark of 0-1.

The Patriots have gained 1.0 unit this season. The team is 2-0 ATS and owns an O/U record of 0-2.

The Jets are just 0-2 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against AFC East opponents. The Patriots are 2-0 SU overall and 1-0 SU against divisional foes.

The Jets fell to Cleveland 23-3 in a Week 2 blowout where the passing game was on point, as the Jets completed 23-of-31 passes for 201 yards. Luke Falk went 20-for-25 for 198 yards while Trevor Siemian completed three-of-six for three yards. Le’Veon Bell (just 68 rushing yards on 21 attempts) led the running attack while Bell (10 receptions, 61 yards) and Robby Anderson (four catches, 81 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

New England is coming off of a 43-0 win over Miami in Week 2. Tom Brady completed 20-of-28 passes for 264 yards and two touchdowns. Sony Michel (85 yards on 21 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running game as Antonio Brown (four receptions, 56 yards, one TD) and Julian Edelman (four catches, 51 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.

New York’s run the ball on 38.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New England has a rush percentage of 49.6 percent. The Jets have produced 80.5 rush yards/game (including 68 per game versus East opponents) and have yet to record a touchdown on the ground this year. The Pats are logging 112.5 rush yards per game (126 in conference) and have two total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Pats should hold an advantage when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has allowed just three sacks while the D-line has logged eight sacks. The Jets O-line has allowed eight sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just four times.

The Jets offensive scheme has averaged 188 yards in the air overall (175 per game against conference opposition) and has only one passing score so far. The Pats have put up 318.5 pass yards per outing (264 in the AFC) and have five total pass TDs.

Defensively, New York has allowed 99 rush yards and 289.5 pass yards per game. The New England defense has allowed 231 yards per game to opposing passers and 37.0 yards per game on the ground. The Pats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 2.05 to opponents, while the Jets have given up a 5.95 ANY/A.

Brady has been more efficient than Falk lately. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 9.83 for the year and 10.28 over his last two games while Falk’s ANY/A is 6.78.

New York Jets at New England Patriots Betting Prediction

SU Winner: , ATS Winner: Jets, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The New England defense has notched twice the sack total of New York this year (eight versus four).
  • New England has lost one fumble this season while the New York offense has lost two.
  • The Jets offense has produced zero pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Patriots have accounted for two such plays.
  • Both teams have allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards. The New York defense has given up three pass plays of 30+ yards while New England has given up one such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced zero rushing plays of 20 or more yards and four running plays of 10+ yards.
  • The Jets defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Patriots have given up zero such runs.
  • The Over/Under for New England’s previous matchup going into it was 48.5. The under cashed in the 43-0 victory over Miami.
  • The O/U for New York’s last game was set at 41. The under cashed in the team’s 23-3 loss to Cleveland.