Week 11 Free Pick – New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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The New Orleans Saints (-5.5) are set to face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. This NFC South showdown will get underway at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to FOX.

Betting Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

In this Sunday NFC game, New Orleans is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 5.5 points. The Saints are also receiving -220 moneyline odds while the Buccaneers are +180. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 50.5 points, and if one side can create a bunch of points early, it’ll likely create a decent in-game betting opportunity.

With the spread opening at 6 and the O/U originally placed at 51, odds have swayed slightly.

The Saints have lost 1.6 units so far and are 6-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 4-5.

The Buccaneers are down 0.9 units this season. The team is 2-7 ATS and the over has hit in seven of its games.

The Saints have gone 7-2 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against NFC South opponents. The Buccaneers are 3-6 SU overall and 1-2 SU versus divisional foes.

The Saints are reeling from a 26-9 defeat to Atlanta last week where Drew Brees completed 32-of-45 passes for 287 yards. Latavius Murray (just 12 rushing yards on five attempts) led the ground attack while Michael Thomas (13 receptions, 152 yards) and Kamara (eight catches, 50 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Tampa Bay just picked up a 30-27 win over Arizona in Week 10. The team’s defensive secondary allowed the Cardinals to air it out for 350 yards and three touchdowns. Christian Kirk was a bright spot in the defeat, recording 138 yards and three touchdowns on six catches for Arizona. For Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston completed 30-of-48 passes for 358 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Ronald Jones II contributed in all aspects in the win. In addition to 29 rushing yards on 11 attempts (and one TD), Jones II also reeled in eight catches for 77 yards.

When glancing at offensive play-calling, each of these teams has a similar (60-40 pass-to-run ratio on the season. The Saints have produced 107.3 rush yards/game (including 82 per game against South opponents) and have five touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bucs are putting up 101.3 rushing yards per game (78.7 in conference) and have 10 total rush TDs.

If 2019 results are any indication, then it appears the Saints may be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has yielded only 20 sacks while the D-line registered 49 sacks. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have allowed 41 sacks and their defense has generated only 38 sacks.

The Saints offense has averaged 276.2 yards in the air overall (324.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has 14 passing scores so far. The Bucs have recorded 307.2 pass yards per game (271 against NFC competition) and have 17 total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, New Orleans appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 90.8 rush yards and 244.4 pass yards per game. The Tampa Bay D has allowed 316.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 77.8 yards per game on the ground. The Saints are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.06 to opponents, while the Bucs have allowed a 7.3 ANY/A.

Offensively, Brees has put up 695 passing yards this year, and has connected on 67-of-93 attempts with two passing scores and two interceptions. Brees has a 5.91 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.69 over the last two games.

Look for a balanced approach offensively from New Orleans in this one. As a group, Michael Thomas, Latavius Murray and Taysom Hill have collectively accounted for 508 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last two outings.

Jameis Winston has completed 183-of-311 passes for 2,430 yards, 15 TDs and 14 INTs for Tampa Bay. His ANY/A sits at 5.57 for the season and 6.41 over his past two outings.

As a group, Mike Evans, Ronald Jones II and Chris Godwin have collectively accounted for 593 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns the last couple of games.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free Betting Pick

SU Winner: Saints, ATS Winner: Buccaneers, O/U: Over

Betting Trends

  • The O/U for New Orleans’ last game was 51.5. The under cashed in the team’s 26-9 defeat to Atlanta.
  • New Orleans has produced 4.5 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.7 over its last two.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.2 over its past two.
  • Tampa Bay has lost seven fumbles this season while New Orleans has lost one.
  • Over its last three matchups, New Orleans is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Tampa Bay’s previous outing was set at 51.5. The over cashed in the 30-27 win over Arizona.
  • In its last three contests, Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • The Saints offense has created four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Buccaneers have put up eight such plays.
  • The New Orleans defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Tampa Bay has given up eight such plays.
  • The New Orleans offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Tampa Bay has created four such runs.
  • The Saints defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Buccaneers have given up three such runs.
  • The New Orleans defensive unit has 25 sacks on the year while Tampa Bay has 21.