Week 11 Free Pick – Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

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The Buffalo Bills (-5) are flying south to visit their AFC East nemesis Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. This early afternoon game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET and CBS is in line to have the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

Miami is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 5 points in this Sunday AFC game. In order to take the favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to put up $200 to win $100 back on the Bills (-200). The Dolphins are getting +170 moneyline odds. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 39 points, and some decent live betting scenarios should be unveiled during this showdown.

The early action has been slanting in favor of the Dolphins, as the opening line was 7.5. The game’s total hasn’t moved after it was set initially at 39.

Each of these teams has posted a good return this season as the Bills have gained 2.5 units and the Dolphins are ahead 1.1 units.

The Bills are 6-3 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against AFC East opponents. The Dolphins are 2-7 SU overall and 1-2 SU against divisional foes.

The Bills hope to get back on track after a narrow 19-16 defeat to Cleveland in Week 10Their defense allowed the Browns to run for 147 yards on 26 rush attempts. Nick Chubb had a productive day for the Browns in that one with 116 rushing yards on 20 attempts. Offensively, Josh Allen completed only 22 passes on 41 attempts for 266 yards. Devin Singletary (42 yards on eight rush attempts) led the ground attack. John Brown (five receptions, 77 yards) and Cole Beasley (four catches, 74 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Miami just got a 16-12 win over Indianapolis a week ago. The defense allowed the Colts to run for 109 yards on 29 rush attempts. Marlon Mack had a productive showing in the loss for Indianapolis, accounting for 74 rushing yards on 19 attempts. For Miami, Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 21-of-33 passes for 169 yards and one interception. Kalen Ballage (43 yards on 20 rush attempts) handled the running attack as DeVante Parker (five receptions, 69 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Buffalo’s run the ball on 45.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Miami has an overall rush percentage of 37.4 percent. The Bills have produced 124.3 rush yards/game (including 126.7 per game versus East opponents) and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Dolphins are totaling 64.4 rushing yards per game (67 in conference) and have four total rush TDs.

The Bills offense has tallied 227.3 yards per game through the air overall (245.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has 10 passing TDs so far. The Dolphins have put up 214.6 pass yards per contest (252 in the AFC) and have nine total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Buffalo should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 115.6 rush yards and 204.9 pass yards per game. The Miami defense has allowed 254.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 146.1 yards per game on the ground. The Bills are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.84 to opposing QBs, while the Dolphins have allowed a 7.91 ANY/A.

Offensively, Allen has amassed 1,759 passing yards this season, and has connected on 156-of-264 attempts with nine passing scores and seven interceptions. Allen’s got a 5.33 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.66 over the last two games.

Devin Singletary, John Brown and Cole Beasley have collectively accounted for 430 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

In the other huddle, Ryan Fitzpatrick has managed to complete 104-of-172 passes for 1,076 yards, five TDs and eight INTs. Fitzpatrick’s ANY/A sits at 4.10 for the year and 5.79 over his last two outings.

Expect Fitzpatrick to attack all areas of the Buffalo secondary. DeVante Parker (412 receiving yards and three receiving TDs this season), Mike Gesicki (181 receiving yards), and Preston Williams (428 receiving yards, three TDs) have collectively recorded 321 receiving yards and three TDs over the last couple of games.

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Pick

SU Winner: Bills, ATS Winner: Bills, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The Buffalo defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 22 times this year. Miami has registered just 13 sacks.
  • Miami has lost six fumbles in 2019 while the Buffalo offense has lost four.
  • The Bills offense has recorded four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Dolphins have accounted for two such plays.
  • The Buffalo defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Miami has given up three such plays.
  • The Buffalo offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Miami has created zero such runs.
  • The Bills defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Dolphins have given up six such runs.
  • The O/U for Miami’s last outing was set at 44.5. The under cashed in that 16-12 victory over Indianapolis.
  • In its last three matches, Miami is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three games, Buffalo is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Buffalo’s last game was set at 42. The under cashed in the team’s 19-16 defeat to Cleveland.
  • As a team, Buffalo has produced 3.8 yards per carry over its past three outings and 3.5 over its last two.
  • Miami has averaged 2.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 2.4 over its last two.