Week 11 Free Betting Pick: Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings

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The Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings are set to go at it indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium. Fans can catch the action live on CBS and kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET.

Week 11 Betting Preview: Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings

Denver is a live dog here and is currently getting 10 points. The Broncos are also receiving +325 moneyline odds while the Vikings are -475. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 38.5 points. There will likely be some good live betting possibilities for this matchup.

The opening line was -11 while the over/under hasn’t changed since it opened at 38.5.

The Broncos have lost 2.8 units so far and are 5-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 3-6.

The Vikings are up 2.0 units this season. The team is 6-4 ATS and has an even O/U record of 5-5.

The Broncos have gone only 3-6 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Vikings are 7-3 SU.

The Broncos are coming off a 24-19 win over Cleveland in Week 9 where Brandon Allen completed 12 passes for 193 yards and two touchdowns. Phillip Lindsay (92 yards on nine rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. Courtland Sutton (five receptions, 56 yards, one TD) and Noah Fant (three catches, 115 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Minnesota just picked up a 28-24 win over Dallas in Week 10. Kirk Cousins completed 23-of-32 passes for 220 yards and two touchdowns. Dalvin Cook logged an outstanding statline in the win. Along with 97 rushing yards on 26 attempts (and one TD), Cook also reeled in seven receptions for 86 yards.

Denver has run the ball on 45.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Minnesota has an overall rush percentage of 53.4 percent. The Broncos have rushed for 111.9 yards per game and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Vikes are totaling 153 rushing yards per game and have 13 total rush TDs.

If 2019 results are any indication, then it appears the Vikes should hold an edge in the trenches, as their offensive line has given up only 17 sacks while their D-line has logged 29 sacks. The Broncos O-line has given up 30 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing signal-callerss on just 19 occasions.

The Broncos offense has averaged 223.9 yards in the air overall and has eight passing scores so far. The Vikes have produced 243.7 pass yards per contest and have 18 total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Denver appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 107.6 rush yards and 212.6 pass yards per game. The Minnesota defense has allowed 264.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 91.2 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Broncos have given up an ANY/A of 5.54 to opposing QBs, while the Vikes are allowing an ANY/A of 5.89.

Offensively, Allen has put up 193 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 60 percent of his 20 attempts with two passing scores and has yet to throw an interception. He’s got a sparkling 9.35 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

Look for a balanced approach offensively from Denver in this one. Phillip Lindsay, Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton have collectively accounted for 444 total yards and three touchdowns over the last two outings.

Kirk Cousins has connected on 178-of-247 passes for 2,217 yards, 15 TDs and three INTs for Minnesota. His ANY/A stands at 8.62 for the year and 7.26 across his past two games.

We also expect the Minnesota offense to spread its attack this Sunday. Dalvin Cook (920 rushing yards, 10 rush TDs, 379 receiving yards this season), Laquon Treadwell (26 receiving yards) and Irv Smith Jr. (208 receiving yards) have combined for 434 yards from scrimmage over the past couple of games.

Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings Free Prediction

SU Winner: Vikings, ATS Winner: Vikings, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • Denver, as a team, has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its past three games and 5.0 over its last two.
  • Minnesota has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 4.0 over its past two.
  • The Minnesota offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Denver has let five get away.
  • Minnesota has won six of its last seven games SU, with a -3-point loss to Kansas City on November 3rd accounting for the only defeat over that span.
  • The Broncos offense has created six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Vikings have put up four such plays.
  • Both teams have allowed four pass plays of 40 yards or more. The Denver defense has given up seven pass plays of 30+ yards while Minnesota has permitted 11 such plays.
  • The Denver offense has created six rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Minnesota has created 12 such runs.
  • The Broncos defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Vikings have given up two such runs.
  • The Minnesota D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 29 times this year. Denver has registered just 19 sacks.