Week 11 Betting Free Pick: Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

Posts AdminArticles, Football, NFL

The Arizona Cardinals (+14) are flying west to visit their NFC West foe San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. This late afternoon game starts at 4:05 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to FOX.

Betting Preview: San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is a live dog and is currently getting 14 points in this Sunday NFC matchup. The Cardinals are also receiving +525 moneyline odds while the 49ers are -875. There will probably be multiple good live betting opportunities for this game, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 45 points.

The game’s total has shifted higher after initially being set at 44. The opening line (-14) has remained firm.

The Cardinals have lost 2.3 units so far and are 7-3 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-4.

The surprising 49ers have gained 8.3 units this season. The team is 5-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-5.

The Cardinals have gone just 3-6-1 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against NFC West opponents. The 49ers are 8-1 SU overall and 2-1 SU versus divisional foes.

The Cards fell to Tampa Bay 30-27 in a Week 10 game where Kyler Murray completed 27-of-44 passes for 324 yards, three scores and one interception. Kenyan Drake (35 rushing yards on 10 attempts) led the ground attack while Larry Fitzgerald (eight receptions, 71 yards) and Christian Kirk (six catches, 138 yards, three TDs) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.

San Francisco just dropped a 27-24 game to Seattle a week ago. The defense allowed the Seahawks to eat up the clock by rushing for 147 yards on 34 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Chris Carson put up a solid outing in the win, recording 89 rushing yards and a score on 25 attempts for Seattle. For San Francisco, Jimmy Garoppolo completed 24-of-46 passes for 248 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Matt Breida (18 yards on 10 rush attempts) spearheaded the running game as Deebo Samuel (eight receptions, 112 yards) and Kendrick Bourne (four catches, 42 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps in the loss.

Arizona has run the ball on 39.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Francisco has a rush percentage of 54.7 percent. The Cardinals have produced 116 rush yards/game (including 134 per game against West opponents) and have nine scores on the ground this year. The Niners are averaging 161.8 rush yards per game (95.7 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Cardinals might have the advantage in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, as their backfield has generated 4.9 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The 49ers have recorded 4.4 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.6 to opponents.

The Cards offensive scheme has averaged 257.9 yards in the air overall (241 per game against conference opposition) and has 12 passing scores so far. The Niners have recorded 230 pass yards per game (269 in the NFC) and have 14 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Arizona has allowed opponents to run for an average of 126 yards and throw for 304.7 yards per game. The San Francisco defense has given up 176.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 107.8 yards per game on the ground. The Niners are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.25 to opponents, while the Cardinals have allowed a 7.96 ANY/A.

Offensively, Murray is up to 2,312 passing yards this year, and has connected on 63 percent of his 336 attempts with 10 scores through the air and five interceptions. He’s got a 5.79 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 7.88 over the past two outings.

Kenyan Drake (209 rushing yards, 180 receiving yards on the year), Andy Isabella (86 receiving yards) and Christian Kirk (459 receiving yards, three TDs) have each played significant roles lately.

In the other locker room, Jimmy Garoppolo has completed 156-of-235 passes for 1,737 yards, 10 TDs and eight INTs. Garoppolo’s ANY/A sits at 5.90 for the year and 6.52 over his past two outings.

Deebo Samuel (299 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown this season), Emmanuel Sanders (416 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Matt Breida (464 rush yards, one rush TD, one receiving TD) have combined for 405 total yards the last couple of games.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers Free Prediction

SU Winner: 49ers, ATS Winner: 49ers, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The O/U for Arizona’s last game was set at 51.5. The over cashed in the team’s 30-27 defeat to Tampa Bay.
  • Arizona, as a team, has produced 5.2 yards per carry across its last three outings and 5.6 over its last two.
  • San Francisco has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three matchups and only 3.2 over its last two.
  • San Francisco has lost seven fumbles this season while Arizona has lost one.
  • Over its last three matches, Arizona is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for San Francisco’s last matchup going into it was 43. The over cashed in the team’s 27-24 loss to Seattle.
  • In its last three matches, San Francisco is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Cardinals offense has registered nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the 49ers have accounted for two such plays.
  • The Arizona defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while San Francisco has given up four such plays.
  • Both teams have produced nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Arizona offense has recorded 35 running plays of 10+ yards while San Francisco has accounted for 37 such plays.
  • Both defenses have allowed six rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Cardinals have given up 34 running plays of 10+ yards while the 49ers have given up 24 such plays.
  • The San Francisco D has sacked opposing QBs 35 times this year. Arizona has registered just 27 sacks.