Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Washington Nationals will face off against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park. This NL matchup will begin at 9:10 p.m. ET and Mid-Atlantic Sports Network is in line to broadcast the game.

Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres Odds

Washington (-120) is coming into this one as the favorite over San Diego (+110) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this one at 7.5 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). The games most recent runline odds stand at +125 for taking the Nationals -1.5 runs and -145 for the Padres +1.5.

The Nationals are 20-17 SU and have gone 18-18 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 4.5 units for moneyline bettors in the seasons early going, despite having gained 0.7 units ATS. Washington has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Padres, on the other hand, are 13-24 SU and 15-21 ATS. The team has lost 5.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 11.6 units ATS. San Diego has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Padres games have had an over/under record of 17-17-2 so far in 2018. Nationals games have gone over 17 times, gone under 17 times and pushed on two instances.

The left-handed Gio Gonzalez will get the nod for Washington. Gonzalez is 4-2 with a 2.33 ERA and 42 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Padres this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (1-0, 0.00 ERA and eight strikeouts over 6.2 innings).

The Padres will put the ball in the left hand of Joey Lucchesi (3-2, 3.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), who has 40 strikeouts and 13 walks. Lucchesi did not pitch in the majors in 2017.

San Diego’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The teams starting pitching staff has an ERA of 5.23, a WHIP of 1.60 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.5. The bullpen has a 3.42 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.8 K/9.

San Diego’s hitters have put up 3.8 runs per outing, including 4.1 per game over its last 10 games and 3.0 per game over their last five. The teams hit .208/.293/.329 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

First baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Christian Villanueva have paced the Padres hitters so far. Hosmer is slashing .278/.381/.500 with five home runs, 12 RBIs and 18 runs scored, while Villanueva’s line sits at .252/.336/.563 with nine homers, 20 RBIs and 17 runs.

Hosmer seemed to have a little trouble hitting lefties at home last season, slashing .224/.274/.357 across 106 such plate appearances (his overall season line was .318/.385/.498).

In the visiting dugout, Washington’s pitching staff allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 10.08 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.67, along with a WHIP of 1.08.

The Nationals offense has slashed .242/.338/.407 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.5 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 5.0 per game over the teams last five outings (4-1 SU).

Bryce Harper and Matt Adams have led Washington’s offense. Harper is hitting .230/.410/.541 with 12 home runs, 28 RBIs and 29 runs scored, while Adams is slashing .308/.426/.744 with 10 homers, 24 RBIs and 18 runs scored.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .317/.411/.596, Harper didn’t seem to enjoy hitting against left-handed pitchers in 2017, putting up a slash line of .311/.357/.445 across 129 plate appearances.

The Nationals have lost 7.3 units and are 5-6 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in three of those games, compared to seven that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Padres have lost 0.4 units and are 5-8 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in seven of those games, as opposed to six that’ve cashed the under.

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Padres, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Nationals have won nine of their last 10 games SU.
  • San Diego has recorded 19.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 15.4 over its last five.
  • The Nationals have hit 18 home runs in their last 10 games. The Padres have hit eight over their last 10.