Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

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The Philadelphia Phillies are set to host their division rival Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will begin at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to Mid-Atlantic Sports Network to catch the game.

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Vegas has listed Washington (+105) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-115). The total sits at nine runs and bettors can wager on the over for -115 and the under for -105. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at Nationals +1.5 runs (-200) and Phillies -1.5 runs (+170).

The Phillies are 74-68 straight up (SU) and 67-74 against the spread (ATS). The team’s gained 3.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 16.9 units (ATS). Philadelphia has covered the spread only once in its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven. The Nationals, on the other hand, are 71-72 SU and have gone 65-78 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 26.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 16.4 units ATS. Washington has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone over in six of those seven.

Phillies games have an over/under record of 62-73-6 in 2018. Nationals games have gone under 74 times, gone over 66 times and pushed on three occasions.

Right-hander Erick Fedde is projected to start for the visiting Nationals. Fedde (1-3, 6.00 ERA) has recorded 26 punchouts in 33 innings so far. He’s 1-1 with six strikeouts and a 6.55 ERA against Philadelphia this year (two starts).

The Phillies will send righty Jake Arrieta (10-9, 3.61 ERA) to the mound. Arrieta has 120 strikeouts and 50 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.25 WHIP. Arrieta is 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA across three starts against Washington this year.

As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 4.4 runs per game overall this year. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.95, a WHIP of 1.24 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.0. The bullpen has a 3.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 60 games against NL East foes, Phillies starters have an ERA of 3.93 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.52.

The Philadelphia hitters are putting up 4.3 runs per contest, including 4.2 per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .256/.365/.446 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that span.

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and right fielder Odubel Herrera have led the Phillies’ offense this year. Hernandez is hitting .258/.364/.360 with 11 home runs, 48 RBIs, 82 runs and 18 steals, and Herrera is batting .261 with 21 homers, 65 RBIs and 60 runs.

For the visitors, Washington’s pitching staff allowed 4.2 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.06 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.93 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.96, along with a K/9 of 8.53.

Nationals hitters have slashed .252/.332/.415 on their way to 4.7 runs scored per game this year, including 5.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Shortstop Trea Turner and third baseman Anthony Rendon continue to lead Washington’s hitters. The speedy Turner is slashing .269/.340/.408 with 17 home runs, 61 RBIs, 89 runs and 37 stolen bases, while Rendon (.298/.358/.508) is up to 19 homers, 71 RBIs and 72 runs scored.

The Nationals have lost 10.3 units and are 49-55 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 47 of those games, as opposed to 55 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 2.8 units and are 52-55 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 46 of those games, as opposed to 57 that’ve cashed the under.

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Nationals, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has cashed in six of Washington’s last seven outings.
  • Both teams have launched 10 home runs over their last 10 games.
  • Philadelphia has posted 19.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 21.8 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have dropped three of their last four games SU.