Washington Nationals at New York Mets Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Washington Nationals will be taking on their NL East nemesis New York Mets at Citi Field. The action will get going at 7:10 p.m. ET and Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will televise the game.

Washington Nationals at New York Mets Odds

Oddsmakers have listed New York (+100) as the underdog to Washington (-110). Gamblers can wager on the game’s total with odds listed at -110 for over 8 runs and -110 for under 8. The game’s most recent runline odds sit at +135 for taking the Nationals -1.5 runs and -155 for the Mets +1.5.

The Nationals have gone 9-9 SU this year and are 7-10 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 6.5 units for moneyline gamblers through the early portions of the season and 3.1 units ATS. The Mets, on the other hand, are 12-4 SU and 10-5 ATS. The team’s gained 9.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 7.0 units ATS.

New York games have an over/under record of 7-8 so far in 2018. Washington has an over/under record of 8-7-2.

Right-hander Tanner Roark will get the nod for the visiting Nationals. Roark is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 18 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with nine strikeouts and a 9.00 ERA against New York this year (two starts).

The Mets are handing the ball to lefty Steven Matz (1-1, 3.77 ERA), who’s got 17 strikeouts and seven walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.19. Matz is 0-0 with eight strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA across one starts against Washington this year.

Washington’s pitching staff allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 10.04 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.55, along with a K/9 of 11.68.

The Nationals offense has slashed .239/.344/.392 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game this season, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Outfielder Bryce Harper and shortstop Trea Turner have led Washington’s hitters. Harper is slashing .304/.482/.750 with eight home runs, 18 RBIs and 17 runs scored, while Turner (.250/.386/.338) is up to one homers, three RBIs, eight runs and eight stolen bases.

Putting up a slash line of .311/.357/.445 across 129 plate appearances, Harper seemed to take a step back when hitting lefty pitching in 2017 (compared to his total season line of .317/.411/.596).

In the other dugout, New York’s pitching staff has allowed 3.5 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starting pitching staff has a 3.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has recorded a solid ERA of just 2.47, a WHIP of 1.23 and a K/9 of 10.3. In 10 games against divisional opponents, Mets starters have an ERA of 2.98 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.78.

The New York hitters are putting up 4.6 runs per contest, including 4.7 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .245/.328/.417 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Mets’ batters have been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and third baseman Todd Frazier. Cabrera is hitting .339/.382/.613 with 21 hits, eight RBIs and 14 runs scored, while Frazier’s line is .283/.420/.491 with 15 hits, 11 RBIs and eight runs.

Compared to his total season slash line of .280/.351/.434, Cabrera seemed to have a little trouble hitting at home last season, slashing .245/.315/.366 over 241 plate appearances.

The Nationals have lost 4.3 units and are 1-3 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in one of those games, compared to two that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 6.2 units and are 7-5 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in six of those games, as opposed to six that’ve cashed the under.

Washington Nationals at New York Mets MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has cashed in three of Washington’s last seven games.
  • The Mets have lost three of their last four games SU.
  • Washington has recorded 20.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.4 over its last five.
  • The Nationals have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.