Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Washington Nationals will be taking on their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will be televising the matchup and the game is scheduled to get going at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Odds

Vegas has listed Miami (+140) as the underdog to Washington (-150). The total sits at 8 runs and bettors can take the over or the under for -110. Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the current odds standing at Nationals -1.5 runs (-105) and Marlins +1.5 runs (-115).

The Marlins are only 19-31 SU and 26-23 ATS. They’ve gained 0.7 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 1.8 units against the spread (ATS). Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. On the other hand, the Nationals have gone 27-22 SU this year and are 23-25 ATS. Overall, the teams lost 4.3 units for moneyline gamblers and 1.1 units ATS. Washington has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Miami games have had an over/under record of 23-26 so far in 2018. Washington has an over/under record of 21-25-2.

Tanner Roark will get the start for the visiting Nationals. The right-handed Roark is 2-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 53 strikeouts. He has yet to face Miami this year, but he made three starts against the team in 2017, compiling a 1-0 record with a 6.14 ERA and 10 strikeouts.

The Marlins will be sending lefty Wei-Yin Chen (1-2, 6.55 ERA) to the hill. Chen has 14 punchouts and 12 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.64. Chen did not record a start against the Nationals in 2017.

Washington’s pitchers have allowed 3.7 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.02 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 10.07 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.41, along with a K/9 of 9.85.

Nationals hitters have slashed .239/.327/.407 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

Shortstop Trea Turner and second baseman Howie Kendrick have led Washington’s offense. Turner is hitting .268/.363/.423 with six home runs, 20 RBIs, 29 runs and 13 stolen bases, while Kendrick (.303/.331/.474) is up to four homers, 12 RBIs and 17 runs scored.

Putting up a slash line of .217/.265/.348 across 49 plate appearances, Turner did not perform especially well against lefties on the road last year (compared to his overall season line of .285/.340/.455).

In the home-team dugout, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.2 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have an ERA of 4.45, a WHIP of 1.31 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.8. The bullpen has a 5.65 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. In 20 games against divisional opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.29 and the bullpens ERA is 6.85.

The Miami hitters have produced 3.4 runs per outing, including 3.3 per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over their last five. The teams hit .251/.340/.402 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Marlins batters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .295/.333/.389 with 57 hits, 21 RBIs and 28 runs scored, while Anderson’s line is .277/.364/.386 with 51 hits, 22 RBIs and 27 runs.

Anderson enjoyed hitting against righty pitching at home last season, slashing .303/.425/.455 across 40 such plate appearances (compared to his overall season line of .262/.337/.369).

The Nationals have lost 8.8 units and are 7-10 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in six of those games, as opposed to 10 that’ve gone under against lefties. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 2.0 units and are 19-17 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 16 of those games, as opposed to 20 that’ve cashed the under.

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Nationals, O/U – UNDER

Betting Notes

  • The Nationals have won three of their last four games SU.
  • Miami has recorded 20.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 22.2 over its last five.
  • The Nationals have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.