Virginia Tech Hokies at Duke Blue Devils: NCAA Football Betting Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The No. 22 Blue Devils (-6) are preparing to welcome their in-conference foe Virginia Tech Hokies to Duke. The game will begin at 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPN2 has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Duke Blue Devils

Virginia Tech is a live dog and is currently getting 6 points in this Saturday ACC game. The Hokies are also receiving +190 moneyline odds while the Blue Devils are -240. There might be some decent live betting opportunities while the contest is taking place.

This game’s line initially opened at -2 but general public has been hammering the Blue Devils.

Each of these teams has rewarded gamblers this season as the Hokies have gained 2.5 units while the Blue Devils are ahead 3.5 units.

The Hokies have gone 2-1 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against ACC opponents. The Blue Devils are 4-0 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.

The Hokies are looking to get back in stride after a 49-35 loss to Old Dominion last week. The passing game could’ve been better as the Hokies completed 17-of-34 passes for 282 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Ryan Willis went nine-for-18 for 131 yards and one touchdown while Josh Jackson completed eight-of-16 for 151 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Steven Peoples (156 rushing yards on 20 attempts, two TDs) and Deshawn McClease (75 yards on 12 carries) provided the ground attack while Damon Hazelton (five receptions, 154 yards, one TD) and Hezekiah Grimsley (three catches, 31 yards) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.

Duke is coming off of a 55-13 win over North Carolina Central. As a group, the Blue Devils collectively completed 20-of-39 passes for 256 yards and four touchdowns. Quentin Harris went 15-for-27 for 202 yards and three touchdowns while Chris Katrenick was five-of-12 for 54 yards and one touchdown. Marvin Hubbard III (96 rushing yards on 20 attempts) and Brittain Brown (118 yards on 13 carries, one TD) mounted the running game while T.J. Rahming (four receptions, 27 yards) and Chris Taylor (three catches, 32 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

Looking at offensive play-calling, each squad has a strikingly similar (62-38) run-pass ratio on the season. The Hokies have produced 245.0 rush yards per game and have nine touchdowns on the ground this year. The Blue Devils are logging 219.5 rushing yards per game and have eight total rush TDs.

It seems like the Hokies ought to own an advantage when it comes to RB effectiveness, as their running backs has logged 5.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 2.9 YPC to opponents. The Blue Devils have rushed for 5.0 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 3.7 to opponents.

The Hokies offense has logged 256.7 yards/game in the air overall and has six passing TDs so far. The Blue Devils have produced 207.8 pass yards per contest and have 11 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Virginia Tech has allowed 88.3 rush yards and 320.0 pass yards per game. The Duke defense has allowed 200.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 133.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Blue Devils are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.36 to opposing QBs, while the Hokies have given up a 7.02 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Jackson is up to 358 yards this year, and has completed 24-of-42 attempts with four scores through the air and one interception. He has a 7.35 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 10.37 over the past two games.

Damon Hazelton (176 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns this season), Steven Peoples (200 rush yards, two rush TDs, 0 receiving yards) and Hezekiah Grimsley (59 receiving yards) have all played significant roles recently.

For the home team, Quentin Harris has completed 17-of-29 passes for 214 yards, three TDs and zero INTs. Harris’ ANY/A stands at 8.45 for the season and 8.70 over his last two outings.

We’re looking for the Blue Devils to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. T.J. Rahming (103 receiving yards, one TD this season) has chipped in lately, but Brittain Brown (227 rush yards, two rush TDs, 44 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Deon Jackson (140 rush yards, two rush TDs) have delivered significant production to the Blue Devils’ recent offensive strategies.

When these two schools faced one another a year ago, Virginia Tech knocked Duke off by three touchdowns 24-3.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Duke Blue Devils Free Pick

SU Winner: Duke, ATS Winner: Duke

Team Betting Notes

  • Virginia Tech was getting 28 points in its previous game and the Over/Under going into it was 52.5. The over cashed and Virginia Tech covered in the 49-35 loss to Old Dominion.
  • As a team, Virginia Tech has averaged 6.6 yards per carry over its past two matchups.
  • Duke has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last two.
  • The Duke offense has lost two fumbles this season while Virginia Tech has lost one.
  • Over its last three games, Virginia Tech is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Duke was favored by 45 points in its last matchup and the Over/Under was 55.5. The over cashed and Duke failed to cover in the 55-13 triumph over North Carolina Central.
  • Over its last three matches, Duke is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Hokies offense has registered two pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Blue Devils have accounted for four such plays.
  • The Virginia Tech defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Duke has given up one such play.
  • Both teams have produced eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Virginia Tech offense has recorded 23 running plays of 10+ yards while Duke has accounted for 28 such plays.
  • Both teams have allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Hokies have given up nine running plays of 10+ yards while the Blue Devils have given up 13 such plays.
  • Each team defense has recorded nine sacks this season.