Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs ATS Odds

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, College Basketball

The Vanderbilt Commodores (6-11, 1-4 SEC) will try to snap a five-game road losing streak when they take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (13-4, 1-3 SEC) at Humphrey Coliseum. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 139 points with Mississippi State opening as a 4.5-point favorite. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 16, 2018, and it can be seen on SEC Network.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds Preview

The last time the Commodores played, they fell to the No. 21 Kentucky Wildcats, 74-67. Jeff Roberson put together a good performance for Vanderbilt, leading the team in scoring with 20 points on 6-for-12 shooting. Kentucky had a free throw rate of 0.581 (above their season average of 0.283). Vanderbilt, on the other hand, had a turnover percentage of 9.5 (better than their season average of 16.0).

The Bulldogs are trying to rebound after their 76-68 loss to the No. 22 Auburn Tigers in their last matchup. With 10 points and 11 rebounds, Mississippi State’s Abdul Ado had a solid performance. Auburn had a turnover percentage of 8.6 (better than their season average of 15.0). Mississippi State, on the other hand, held the Tigers to an offensive rebounding percentage of 23.8 (below their season average of 37.0).

Mississippi State could have their way on defense as they go head-to-head against one of the worst offenses in the nation. The Bulldogs currently rank 18th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.455), while Vanderbilt is 264th in effective field goal percentage (0.490). Also, the Commodores, who rank 20th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.303), will face a difficult challenge against the Bulldogs, who rank 17th in opponents FTA rate (0.171).

Both of these teams have typically gone under the O/U total. Games involving Vanderbilt have gone under 64.3 percent of the time, while 75.0 percent of Mississippi State games have finished under. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Bulldogs have a substantial advantage. They are 13-4 SU and 3-9 ATS, while the Commodores are 6-11 SU and 1-13 ATS.

Saben Lee has been playing at a high level over the last five games for Vanderbilt, averaging 16.8 points and 1.6 steals per game.

This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams, after the Commodores won the lone game last season, 77-48. The Commodores dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a superb effective field goal percentage of 0.596 and a turnover percentage of 16.2. For those same stats, the Bulldogs were 0.372 and 23.9, respectively.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Vanderbilt, ATS Winner – Vanderbilt, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Commodores rank seventh in steals allowed per game (4.4) while the Bulldogs rank 58th (5.6).
  • Vanderbilt allows the 20th-fewest assists per game (10.4) while Mississippi State ranks 30th (11.1).
  • Vanderbilt is 1-5 ATS on the road, while Mississippi State is 3-5 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 6 of the Bulldogs 8 home games, while 5 of the Commodores 6 road games have gone under.
  • Vanderbilt ranks 12th in three pointers allowed per game (17.5) while Mississippi State ranks 204th (24.2).
  • The Bulldogs rank 33rd in rebounds per game (39.8) while the Commodores rank 153rd (35.6).
  • Mississippi State ranks 14th in blocks per game (5.9) while Vanderbilt ranks 123rd in blocks allowed per game (3.9).

Betting Trends:

  • Mississippi State is 1-3 ATS with 4 unders in their last five games.
  • Over their last five games, Vanderbilt is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Bulldogs have scored an equal number of points as their opponents. On the season, Mississippi State has defeated opponents by an average of 10.2 points.
  • During their last five games, the Commodores have scored an average of 72.2 points per game (0.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 78.6 points per game (7.3 above their season average).