Utah State Aggies at Air Force Falcons NCAA Football Free Betting Pick

Victor TrejosArticles, College Football, Football

The Air Force Falcons and Utah State Aggies are set to do battle on the turf at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. This showdown will kick off fairly late for those on the East Coast (10:15 p.m. ET) and ESPN2 is scheduled to have the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Utah State Aggies vs. Air Force Falcons

The Falcons come into this Saturday MWC game as a significant dog here and are currently getting 11 points. The Falcons are also receiving +315 moneyline odds while the Aggies are -425. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 63.5 points, and if one team can create a bunch of points early, it would likely create a nice live betting opportunity.

Sharp bettors are hammering the Aggies, as the opening line was -9. The game’s over/under hasn’t changed after it was initially posted at 63.5.

The Falcons have gained 0.0 units so far and are 2-0 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 1-0.

The Aggies have gained 0.0 units this season. The team is 3-0 ATS and owns an O/U record of 3-0.

The Falcons are 1-1 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any MWC competition yet. The Aggies are 2-1 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.

The Falcons are trying to bounce back after a 33-27 defeat to Florida Atlantic on September 8. Isaiah Sanders completed eight-of-13 passes for just 164 yards, as well as a score and a pick. Sanders (34 rushing yards on 18 attempts) also led the running attack. Marcus Bennett (two receptions, 87 yards) and Ronald Cleveland (two catches, 23 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Utah State is coming off of a 73-12 win over Tennessee Tech. The team’s defensive unit let the Golden Eagles rush for 152 yards on 43 attempts. Andrew Goldsmith was a bright spot in the loss for Tennessee Tech, accounting for 29 yards on two catches. As a group, the Aggies collectively completed 30-of-35 passes for 291 yards and two touchdowns. Jordan Love went 21-for-26 for 236 yards and two touchdowns while Henry Colombi was nine-of-nine for 55 yards. Gerold Bright (55 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) and Darwin Thompson (107 yards on six carries, one TD) spearheaded the running game while Ron’Quavion Tarver (five receptions, 30 yards) and Jalen Greene (four catches, 31 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Air Force has run the ball on 86.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Utah State has an overall rush percentage of 50.7 percent. The Falcons have produced 271.0 rush yards per game and have six touchdowns on the ground this year. The Aggies are putting up 206.3 rush yards per game and have 13 total rushing TDs.

The Falcons offensive scheme has averaged 96.5 yards through the air overall and has only one passing scores so far. The Aggies have produced 260.7 pass yards per contest and have three total pass TDs.

Air Force has let opponents run for an average of 42.0 yards and throw for 258.0 yards per game. The Utah State defense has given up 177.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 142.0 yards per game on the ground. The Aggies are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 2.93 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons have allowed an 8.21 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Sanders has put up 164 yards this year, and has connected on 62 percent of his 13 attempts with one passing scores and one interception. Sanders has a pristine 9.64 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

In the other locker room, Jordan Love has completed 50-of-70 passes for 555 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Love’s ANY/A sits at 6.75 for the season and 7.15 over his last two games.

When these two squads faced one another a year ago, Air Force won by a field goal 38-35.

Air Force Falcons vs. Utah State Aggies NCAA Pick

SU Winner: Utah State, ATS Winner: Utah State, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends,

  • The Falcons offense has created one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Aggies have accounted for zero such plays.
  • The Air Force defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while Utah State has given up one such play.
  • The Air Force offense has created one rushing play of 20+ yards, while Utah State has created seven such runs.
  • The Falcons defense has allowed one rushing play of 20 yards or more, while the Aggies have given up five such runs.
  • The Utah State defense has tallied triple the sack total of Air Force this year (nine versus three).
  • In its last three matchups, Utah State is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • Air Force was favored by 8 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 59.5. The over cashed and Air Force failed to cover in the 33-27 loss to Florida Atlantic.
  • Utah State was favored by 44 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 63.5. The over cashed and Utah State covered in the team’s 73-12 triumph over Tennessee Tech.