Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

The Utah Jazz (16-23) can end a six-game road losing streak when they square off against the Miami Heat (21-17) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 197 points with Miami opening as a 4.5-point favorite. Action begins at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 7, 2018.

Utah Jazz at Miami Heat Free Preview

The last time the Jazz played, they fell to the Denver Nuggets, 99-91. Utah’s Derrick Favors finished with 14 points and 10 rebounds in the game. Denver had a better free throw rate (0.105 vs. 0.036). Utah, meanwhile, held the Nuggets to an offensive rebounding percentage of 8.2 (below their season average of 27.2).

The Heat come in on a high note after topping the New York Knicks in their last matchup, 107-103. Miami was lifted by Kelly Olynyk, who had 10 points and 10 rebounds. The Heat, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 19.5, had a ridiculous mark of 32.6, while the Knicks had a turnover percentage of 17.4 (above their season average of 13.4).

Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams battle. Miami ranks 27th in possessions per game (96.7) and Utah is 26th (96.8).

Of Utah’s 39 games, 21 have finished under the O/U total, while 22 of Miami’s 38 games have finished under the projected point total. The Heat have the better straight up (SU) record (21-17 vs. 16-23), but the Jazz hold the clear advantage against the spread (ATS) (19-20 vs. 16-20-2).

The Jazz’s Donovan Mitchell (22.4 points, 3.6 assists and 1.6 steals) and Favors (15.6 points and 7.8 rebounds) have been playing at a high level over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Heat have their own duo of hot players. Goran Dragic has averaged 17.4 points, 6.8 assists and 1.2 steals, while Josh Richardson has averaged 16.8 points, 3.8 assists and 1.2 steals.

These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined for 158 points, well under the projected point total of 194. The Heat won 84-74, covering as 3-point underdogs. Miami had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (16.3 vs. 8.9). Utah, on the other hand, did an excellent job of converting from the charity stripe (19-22; 86.4 percent). Hassan Whiteside had a stellar game, with 8 points and 20 rebounds.

Utah Jazz at Miami Heat Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Jazz rank 24th in points in the paint per game (41.5) while the Heat rank 28th (40.3).
  • Miami ranks 24th in rebounds per game (41.3) while Utah ranks 25th (40.7).
  • Utah ranks 26th in second chance points per game (10.4) while Miami ranks 28th (9.8).
  • On the road, Utah is 6-13 ATS with 10 overs, 8 unders and 1 push.
  • Miami is 5-12-2 ATS at home with 10 unders, 8 overs and 1 push.
  • When allowing below 100 points, Utah is 10-3 and Miami is 13-3.
  • The Jazz are 14-9 when they score above 100 points, while the Heat are 16-6.
  • The Jazz are 26th in the league with 8.6 fast break points per game while the Heat are 28th with 7.2 fast break points per game.
  • Utah ranks second in steals per game (9.2) while Miami ranks 17th (7.4).
  • The Heat rank first in three pointers allowed per game (24.9) while the Jazz rank eighth (27.0).
  • The Jazz are third in the NBA with 20.1 assists allowed per game while the Heat are fourth with 20.5 assists allowed per game.
  • Utah averages 17.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. Miami ranks 17th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.9).

Betting Trends:

  • Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.
  • Over their last five games, Utah is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
  • The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 2.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Miami has been defeated by an average of 1.4 points.
  • During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 95.4 points per game (5.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.2 points per game (6.5 above their season average).