The UNLV Rebels (+22) are heading west to face the San Diego State Aztecs at SDCCU Stadium. Kickoff is fairly late for fans on the East Coast (10:30 p.m. ET) and ESPN2 is in line to broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: UNLV Rebels at San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State has been tabbed as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 22 points to UNLV. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 55 points. If one side can create a bunch of points early, it’ll likely generate a nice in-game betting opportunity.
The game’s line opened at -18. The O/U hasn’t changed after being set initially at 55.
The underwhelming Rebels are 4-5 against the spread (ATS) and are down 6.8 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 6-2.
The Aztecs are up 6.3 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-7 ATS and own an O/U record of 3-6.
The Rebels have gone only 2-7 straight up (SU), including 0-5 SU against conference opponents. The Aztecs are 7-2 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play.
When these two squads faced one another a year ago, San Diego State knocked UNLV off handily 41-10.
The Rebels might be on its last limbs after a 45-point loss to Fresno State last week where the Rebels completed 15-of-35 passes for 105 yards and one interception. Max Gilliam went 14-for-30 for 98 yards and one interception while Kenyon Oblad completed one-of-five for seven yards. Charles Williams (121 yards on 16 rush attempts) and Lexington Thomas (43 yards on 14 carries) spearheaded the ground attack while Brandon Presley (four receptions, 48 yards) and Thomas (three catches, 16 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
San Diego State just earned a 31-23 win over New Mexico. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Lobos to rush for 101 yards on 37 attempts. Daevon Vigilant had a good outing in the loss, recording 45 rushing yards on 11 attempts for New Mexico. As a group, the Aztecs collectively completed 17-of-25 passes for 240 yards and one touchdown. Christian Chapman went 13-for-19 for 182 yards and one touchdown while Ryan Agnew was four-of-six for 58 yards. Chase Jasmin (40 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) and Juwan Washington (95 yards on 11 carries, two TDs) handled the running game as Kahale Warring (five receptions, 61 yards, one TD) and Tim Wilson Jr. (three catches, 63 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.
UNLV has run the ball on 59.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Diego State has an overall rush percentage of 64.7 percent. The Rebels have run for 227.3 yards/game (including 140.0 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 17 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Aztecs are putting up 174.7 rushing yards per game (155.8 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.
The Rebels offensive scheme has logged 166.1 yards per contest through the air overall (225.2 per game versus conference opposition) and has 18 passing scores so far. The Aztecs have recorded 180.4 pass yards per contest (187 in the MWC) and have eight total pass TDs.
Defensively, UNLV has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 210.9 yards and throw for 256.6 yards per game. The San Diego State D has given up 204.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 83.1 yards per game on the ground. The Aztecs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.29 to opponents, while the Rebels have allowed an ugly 9.13 ANY/A.
Offensively, Gilliam has put up 732 passing yards on the year, and has completed 53 percent of his 140 attempts with eight passing scores and four interceptions. He’s got a 3.91 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.59 over the last two games.
Tyleek Collins (224 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns this season), Lexington Thomas (703 rush yards, eight rush TDs, 38 receiving yards) and Brandon Presley (229 receiving yards, two TDs) have each played big roles lately.
Ryan Agnew has completed 63-of-120 passes for 934 yards, four TDs and four INTs for San Diego State. His ANY/A sits at 5.48 for the year and 7.68 across his past two outings.
We’re expecting the Aztecs to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to Kahale Warring (193 receiving yards, one receiving TD this season), Chase Jasmin (500 rush yards, five rush TDs) and Chance Bell (104 rush yards) have really been focal points in the Aztecs’ recent offensive strategies.
UNLV Rebels at San Diego State Aztecs Betting Pick
SU Winner: San Diego State, ATS Winner: UNLV, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes*
- The San Diego State defense has sacked opposing QBs 19 times this season. UNLV has produced 14 sacks.
- San Diego State has lost 10 fumbles in 2018 while the UNLV offense has let five get away.
- The Rebels offense has produced five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Aztecs have accounted for one such play.
- Both teams have allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards. The UNLV defense has given up 17 pass plays of 30+ yards while San Diego State has given up 12 such plays.
- The UNLV offense has created 21 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while San Diego State has created 17 such runs.
- The Rebels defense has allowed 25 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Aztecs have given up two such runs.
- The O/U for San Diego State’s previous match was set at 45.5. The over cashed in the 31-23 victory over New Mexico.
- Over its last three contests, San Diego State is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three contests, UNLV is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- San Diego State has won eight of its last nine games SU, with a -4-point loss to Nevada on October 27th representing its one defeat over that stretch.
- The O/U for UNLV’s last game was set at 59.5. The under cashed in the team’s 48-3 defeat to Fresno State.
- UNLV has rushed for 4.5 yards per attempt across its last three games and 4.7 over its last two.
- San Diego State has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.4 over its last two.