UMBC Retrievers vs. Virginia Cavaliers ATS Prediction

The No. 16 UMBC Retrievers (24-10), 21.5-point underdogs, take on the No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (31-2) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament at Spectrum Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 121.5 points and action starts at 9:20 p.m. ET on Friday, March 16, 2018.

UMBC Retrievers vs. Virginia Cavaliers ATS Odds

Both teams were victorious in their last game. The Cavaliers beat the 12th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels 71-63, while the Retrievers barely escaped the Vermont Catamounts 65-62.

The Retrievers had a phenomenally low turnover percentage of 6.2 (better than their season average of 15.6) and held the Catamounts to an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.5 (below their season average of 27.0). Meanwhile, Virginia’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over North Carolina. The Cavaliers had a rate of 6.3 (better than their season average of 12.7), while the Tar Heels posted a mark of 13.7. Virginia rallied around Kyle Guy, who contributed 16 points. Jairus Lyles played a key role for UMBC with 27 points.

Ball protection could play an integral role in this meeting. Virginia commits the fifth-fewest miscues in the NCAA (turnover percentage of 14.2 percent), while the pesky defense of UMBC forces the 38th-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 21.5 percent). Additionally, the Retrievers rank 317th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.198), while the Cavaliers rank 37th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.192).

Ty Jerome has been playing at a high level recently for Virginia, averaging 12.8 points, 4.0 assists and 1.6 steals over the last five games.

UMBC Retrievers vs. Virginia Cavaliers ATS Pick

Free College Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Virginia, ATS Winner – UMBC, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • UMBC ranks 31st in three pointers attempted per game (26.3) while Virginia ranks 247th (18.9).
  • The Cavaliers rank first in assists allowed per game (8.8) while the Retrievers rank 130th (13.2).
  • Virginia ranks 38th in blocks allowed per game (2.6) while UMBC ranks 49th (2.7).
  • The Cavaliers rank 13th in rebounds allowed per game (30.6) while the Retrievers rank 213th (36.2).
  • Virginia ranks second in steals allowed per game (3.9) while UMBC ranks 150th (6.4).

Bettings Trends:

  • The Retrievers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.4, up from 4.4 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Cavaliers have scored an average of 67.8 points per game (0.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 60.4 points per game (7.0 above their season average).