The Milwaukee Bucks (20-16) will be at home in BMO Harris Bradley Center when they challenge the Toronto Raptors (26-10). Toronto opened as a 1-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 216.5 points. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 5, 2018, and it can be seen on TSN2 Toronto.
Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds Preview
The Raptors defeated the Chicago Bulls in their last contest, 124-115. With 25 points, 13 rebounds and five assists, Toronto’s Delon Wright had a good performance. Toronto dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.207 (matching their season average) and a turnover percentage of 9.9 (better than their season average of 12.1). For those same stats, Chicago was 0.172 and 11.4, respectively.
In the Bucks last game, they dismantled the Indiana Pacers, 122-101. Milwaukee received a boost from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was the games high scorer with 31 points on 12-for-18 shooting. The Bucks knocked down 25 of their 28 free throws (89.3 percent) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.647 (above their season average of 0.536).
The physical Milwaukee offense could be living from the free throw line in this showdown. The Bucks currently rank eighth in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.217, while Toronto ranks 26th in FTA rate allowed (0.215). Furthermore, the fourth-ranked offense of the Raptors (offensive efficiency of 111.1) will attempt to exploit the 23rd-ranked defense of the Bucks (defensive efficiency of 108.0).
Of Toronto’s 36 games, 18 have finished over the O/U total, while 23 of Milwaukee’s 36 games have finished over the O/U total. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Raptors have a sizable advantage. They are 26-10 SU and 21-15 ATS, while the Bucks are 20-16 SU and 17-14-5 ATS.
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to put up 258 points, well over the projected point total of 213.5. The Raptors won 131-127, but were unable to cover as 6-point favorites. The Raptors dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a turnover percentage of 10.2 and a solid free throw rate of 0.297. The Bucks were 11.7 and 0.280, respectively, for those same stats. DeMar DeRozan was the games leading scorer with 52 points.
Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Raptors, ATS Winner – Raptors, O/U – Over
- The Bucks rank 11th in second chance points allowed per game (12.0) while the Raptors rank 26th (13.5).
- Milwaukee ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.4) while Toronto ranks 10th (15.2).
- Milwaukee averages 47.4 points in the paint per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Toronto ranks 19th in points allowed in the paint per game (44.9).
- Milwaukee averages 23.0 assists per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. Toronto ranks 12th in assists allowed per game (22.3).
- Toronto is 12-9 ATS on the road, while Milwaukee is 8-8-3 ATS at home.
- The total has gone over in 11 of the Bucks 19 home games, while 11 of the Raptors 21 road games have gone under.
- Toronto is 11-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Milwaukee is 8-2.
- In games where they score more than 100 points, the Bucks are 16-10 and the Raptors are 25-5.
- The Raptors rank 18th in rebounds per game (42.6) while the Bucks rank last (38.7).
- Toronto ranks fifth in three pointers attempted per game (32.1) while Milwaukee ranks 25th (24.7).
- The Bucks rank first in fast break points allowed per game (7.2) while the Raptors rank 21st (12.2).
- The Bucks rank fourth in steals allowed per game (6.8) while the Raptors rank 11th (7.6).
- Milwaukee ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while Toronto ranks 18th (4.9).
- Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Toronto is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Bucks average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.2, up from 0.1 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Raptors have scored an average of 113.2 points per game (1.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.4 points per game (8.6 above their season average).