Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics ATS Prediction

Daniel GimenezBasketball, NBA

The Toronto Raptors (12-3) and their sensational offense head to Boston as 1.5-point underdogs to take on the Celtics (8-6) and their tremendous defense. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 214 points and it can be seen on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, November 16, 2018.

Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics ATS Odds

In the Celtics’ last game, they comfortably covered the 13-point spread against the Chicago Bulls, 111-82. The Raptors, on the other hand, were beat by the Detroit Pistons, 106-104, and failed to cover as 9.5-point underdogs. The Boston game went 19.5 points under the projected point total of 212.5, while the Toronto game went 11.5 points under the projected point total of 221.5.

Boston dominated every facet of the game. They had a turnover percentage of 11.9 (worse than their season average of 11.5) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.550 (above their season average of 0.500). For those same stats, Chicago recorded marks of 20.0 and 0.435, respectively. Toronto, on the other hand, held Detroit to an offensive rebounding percentage of 19.6 (below their season average of 26.1). Boston’s Kyrie Irving played well, putting up 17 points, seven assists and six rebounds. Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard played a pivotal role for Toronto with 26 points and nine rebounds.

In their first matchup this year, Leonard led the Raptors to a 113-101 victory. He notched a double-double with 31 points and 10 rebounds. The two teams combined to put up 214 points, which was just over the projected point total of 209.5, and Toronto covered as a 3-point favorite. Toronto’s free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Boston. The Raptors had a rate of 0.152, while the Celtics posted a mark of 0.071.

Of the Raptors’ 15 games, 10 have finished over the total. Toronto heads into the contest with records of 12-3 straight up (SU) and 8-7 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Toronto, Celtics games have a tendency to finish under the O/U total (57.1 percent). Further, Boston is 8-6 SU and 5-9 ATS.

Pascal Siakam has been playing at a high level recently for Toronto, averaging 19.6 points and 5.8 rebounds over the last five games.

The offense of Boston (23rd in the league with an offensive efficiency of 104.3) will face off against the top-notch defense of Toronto (sixth in the league with a defensive efficiency of 104.0). The Raptors figure to have the advantage on that end of the court. Additionally, the Raptors rank 22nd in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.190), while the Celtics rank fifth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.181).

Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics Free Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Raptors, ATS Winner – Raptors, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Celtics rank first in blocks allowed per game (3.4) while the Raptors rank seventh (4.8).
  • Toronto ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (53.6) while Boston ranks last (37.6).
  • The Raptors rank 10th in rebounds per game (46.7) while the Celtics rank 25th in rebounds allowed per game (47.9).
  • Toronto ranks 14th in second chance points per game (13.3) while Boston ranks 25th (10.9).
  • Toronto averages 33.6 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Boston ranks 17th in three pointers allowed per game (32.1).
  • The Celtics rank third in assists allowed per game (21.8) while the Raptors rank 20th (24.0).
  • The Celtics rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.5) while the Raptors rank 11th (16.5).
  • Boston ranks second in steals allowed per game (6.4) while Toronto ranks sixth (6.9).
  • Boston ranks fourth in fast break points allowed per game (11.3) while Toronto ranks 19th (15.1).
  • In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Toronto is 1-0 and Boston is 4-1.
  • The Raptors are 12-3 when they score more than 100 points, while the Celtics are 8-4.
  • Boston is 3-2 ATS at home, while Toronto is 4-2 ATS on the road.
  • The Raptors have 3 overs and 3 unders in 6 road games.
  • The Celtics have 3 unders and 2 overs in 5 home games.
  • Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Toronto and Boston have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Raptors are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Celtics are 1-4.
  • The Raptors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.0, down from 7.3 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 108.6 points per game (3.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.8 points per game (3.9 above their season average).