Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins Free Pick

The Toronto Maple Leafs look to avoid elimination at TD Garden in Game 5 of the NHL postseason’s first round. The action will get underway at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 21, and it can be watched live on NBC.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Odds

Boston enters the contest as the noticeable favorite with a -185 moneyline. The line for Toronto sits at +160 and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 6 goals. The line for betting the total stands at -110 for the over and -110 for the under.

Boston is 53-33 straight up (SU) and has netted moneyline bettors 6.1 units this season. That win percentage, ranked fifth in the league so far in the early season, is an improvement compared to how the team performed during last years regular season (44-38). Among the teams 86 games this season, 38 have gone under the total, while 38 have gone over and just five have pushed. The team is 30-13 SU at home this season.

The Bruins offensive attack attempted 32.9 shots per game in the regular season, leading to 3.3 goals per contest (ranked sixth overall in the NHL). In the postseason, the club is attempting an average of 32.8 shots on goal (and up to 4.3 goals per game).

Following a regular season where they scored on 24.5 percent of all power-play opportunities (the fourth-best), the Bruins have connected on 45.5 percent of their extra-man advantages in the early stages of this postseason.

Sporting a .918 save percentage and 25.9 saves per game, Tuukka Rask (37-21-5) has been the top option in goal for Boston this season. If the Bruins, however, decide to rest him, Boston could go with Anton Khudobin (16-15-15 record, .913 save percentage, 2.56 goals against average).

Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak will each look to continue their strong seasons for the Bruins. Marchand (92 points) has tallied 36 goals and 56 assists and has recorded multiple points on 29 separate occasions this year. Pastrnak has 39 goals and 52 assists to his name and has recorded at least one point in 57 games.

On the other bench, Toronto is 50-36 straight up (SU) and has netted 4.4 units for moneyline bettors this season. Through 86 regular season matches, 44 of its games have gone over the total, while 36 have gone under and just six have pushed. The Maple Leafs are 20-23 SU as a road team this season.

The Maple Leafs enter the matchup with the second-strongest power-play unit in the NHL, as they’ve found the net on 24.8 percent of their extra-man chances this year. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked 12th overall and it’s successfully killed off 80.2 percent of all opponent power plays.

Toronto’s players have been penalized only 3.2 times per game this season, and 4.4 per game over their last five on the road. The team has been forced to kill penalties just 7.9 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.

Frederik Andersen (30.3 saves per game) has been the primary option in the net for Toronto. Andersen has 41 wins, 29 losses, and five overtime losses to his credit, while registering a .916 save percentage and 2.87 goals against average this year.

Mitchell Marner (23 goals, 51 assists) has been one of the top facilitators on offense for the visiting Maple Leafs.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins Betting Picks

Prediction: SU Winner – Bruins, O/U – Under

Betting Notes

  • Toronto has managed 30.4 shot attempts per game over its last five road games while Boston has been attempting 35.8 shots per game over its last five at home.
  • Eight of Boston’s last ten contests have been decided by two or more goals. The team is 5-3 overall in those games.
  • The Bruins this season have recorded the eighth-most hits per game (23.8).