Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Tampa Bay Rays will play host to the Toronto Blue Jays at Tropicana Field. Fox Sports Sun will be airing the action and the first pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Odds

Vegas has placed identical -105 moneyline odds on both of these teams. The total stands at eight runs and bettors can wager on the over for +100 and the under for -120. The games runline odds sit at +140 for betting the Blue Jays -1.5 runs and -160 for the Rays +1.5 runs.

The Blue Jays have gone 30-35 SU this year and are 30-34 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 7.5 units for moneyline gamblers and 6.9 units ATS. Toronto has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Rays, on the other hand, are 29-35 SU and 32-31 ATS. They’ve lost 4.5 units for moneyline bettors and 0.8 units ATS. Tampa Bay has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven outings and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Rays games have had an over/under record of 29-32-2 so far in 2018. Toronto has an over/under record of 28-28-8.

Sam Gaviglio will get the start for the Blue Jays. The right-handed Gaviglio is 2-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 26 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Rays this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (1-0, 1.80 ERA and six strikeouts over five innings).

The Rays are putting the ball in the left hand of Ryan Yarbrough (4-2, 3.68 ERA), who has 55 strikeouts and 19 walks this season as well as a 1.23 WHIP. Yarbrough is 1-0 with four strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Toronto this year.

Tampa Bay’s pitchers have allowed 4.3 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The teams starters have a 4.10 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.3 K/9. In 27 divisional games, Rays starters have an ERA of 5.52 and the bullpens ERA is 4.08.

Tampa Bay’s hitters have produced 4.1 runs per outing, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .262/.299/.435 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

First baseman C.J. Cron and third baseman Matt Duffy have paced the Rays batters this year. Cron is slashing .258/.327/.484 with 15 home runs, 36 RBIs and 35 runs scored, while Duffy is hitting .318 with 62 hits, 17 RBIs and 13 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Toronto’s pitching staff allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.95 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 8.12 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.02, along with a K-per-9 of 8.87.

The Blue Jays offense has slashed .234/.313/.415 on its way to 4.6 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over the teams last five contests (4-1 SU).

Toronto’s offense has been powered by right fielder Kevin Pillar and third baseman Yangervis Solarte, who’ve collectively belted 19 home runs. Pillar is slashing .266/.304/.451 with seven home runs, 27 RBIs, 33 runs and nine stolen bases, while Solarte is slashing .256/.315/.455 with 12 homers, 37 RBIs and 33 runs scored.

The Blue Jays have lost 9.8 units and are 12-13 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in nine of those games, as opposed to 12 that’ve gone under against lefties. On the other hand, the Rays have lost 5.8 units and are 20-22 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in 22 of those games, compared to 19 which went under the total.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Rays, ATS Winner – Rays, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Blue Jays have hit 16 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.
  • Tampa Bay has recorded 18.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 21.6 over its last five.