Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Toronto Blue Jays will be facing off against their divisional rival Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. New England Sports Network is in line to broadcast the matchup and the game gets going at 1:05 p.m. ET.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Odds

Boston (-160) is favored over Toronto (+150) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this one at 10 runs. The odds for betting on the games total stand at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the current odds coming in at Blue Jays +1.5 runs (-145) and Red Sox -1.5 runs (+125).

The Red Sox are 67-30 straight up (SU) and 58-38 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 22.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 19.9 units (ATS). Boston has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Blue Jays are 43-51 SU and have gone 44-49 ATS. Overall, the teams lost 6.1 units for moneyline gamblers and 9.6 units ATS. Toronto has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Boston games have an over/under record of 47-46-3 so far in 2018. Toronto has an over/under record of 44-41-8.

Marcus Stroman will get the nod for the visiting Blue Jays. The right-handed Stroman (2-6, 5.90 ERA) has racked up 48 punchouts in 61 innings so far. He has yet to face Boston this year, but he made three starts against the Red Sox in 2017, putting together a 0-1 record against them with a 3.63 ERA and 13 strikeouts.

The Red Sox are turning to lefty Brian Johnson (1-2, 4.23 ERA), who’s got 37 strikeouts and 13 walks as well as a 1.48 WHIP. Johnson made two starts against the Blue Jays in 2017, compiling a 1-0 record with a 5.73 ERA.

Boston’s pitchers have yielded 3.8 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The clubs starting pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.32 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 9.7 K/9. In 44 games against divisional opponents, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 3.58 and the bullpens ERA is 4.02.

The Boston offense has produced 5.4 runs per contest, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 6.2 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .310/.372/.489 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts have paced the Red Sox offense this year. Martinez is hitting .330/.392/.648 with 29 home runs, 80 RBIs and 71 runs scored, while Betts has produced a line of .362/.450/.698 with 23 homers, 51 RBIs, 79 runs and 17 stolen bases.

In the visiting dugout, Toronto’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.98 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 8.05 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.89, along with a K/9 of 9.17.

Blue Jays hitters have slashed .238/.312/.419 on their way to 4.5 runs scored per game this season, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over the teams last five contests (2-3 SU).

Toronto’s offensive production has been sparked by third baseman Yangervis Solarte and right fielder Kevin Pillar. Solarte is slashing .244/.301/.428 with 16 home runs, 48 RBIs and 43 runs scored, while Pillar is hitting .247/.279/.407 with eight homers, 37 RBIs, 42 runs and 11 stolen bases.

The Blue Jays have lost 11.6 units and are 15-18 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 14 of those games, as opposed to 15 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 23.1 units and are 45-26 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 36 of those games, compared to 33 which went under the total.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Blue Jays, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has hit in four of Toronto’s last seven games.
  • The Red Sox have won 11 of their last 12 games SU.
  • Toronto has recorded 23.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 25.2 over its last five.
  • The Blue Jays have hit 16 home runs in their last 10 games. The Red Sox have hit nine over their last 10.