Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Free Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Toronto Blue Jays are paying a visit to Fenway Park to take on their division rival Boston Red Sox. The opening pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET and New England Sports Network will broadcast the matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Boston (-180) as the favorite over Toronto (+170). The total stands at 9.5 runs and bettors can take the over for -120 and the under for +100. Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the runline odds standing at Blue Jays +1.5 runs (-130) and Red Sox -1.5 runs (+110).

The Blue Jays have gone 25-28 SU this year and are 27-25 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 5.2 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having gained 0.1 units ATS. Toronto has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in two of those seven. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 36-17 SU and 28-24 ATS. They’ve gained 12.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 4.5 units ATS. Boston has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Neither team has positioned itself as an obvious over/under bet this season. Red Sox games have had an over/under record of 24-26-2 so far in 2018. Toronto has an over/under record of 22-22-8.

The right-handed Aaron Sanchez will get the start for the visiting Blue Jays. Sanchez is 2-4 with a 4.07 ERA and 42 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with 12 strikeouts and a 3.27 ERA against Boston this year.

The Red Sox are putting the ball in the left hand of David Price (4-4, 4.08 ERA), who has 55 strikeouts and 22 walks as well as a 1.24 WHIP. Price is 1-0 with six strikeouts and a 3.38 ERA against Toronto this year.

Boston’s pitching staff has allowed 3.8 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The teams starters have a 3.84 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.18, a WHIP of 1.18 and a K/9 of 9.6. In 32 games against divisional foes, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 3.28 and the bullpens ERA is 4.03.

The Boston hitters are putting up 5.3 runs per contest, including 5.0 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .212/.309/.423 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Red Sox offense has been led by Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Betts is slashing .359/.437/.750 with 17 home runs, 37 RBIs, 52 runs and 13 steals, and Martinez line sits at .320/.377/.639 with 16 homers, 42 RBIs and 33 runs scored.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .303/.376/.690, Martinez enjoyed hitting at home last year, hitting .355/.439/.820 across 253 plate appearances.

In the other dugout, Toronto’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.14 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 8.16 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.70, along with a K-per-9 of 9.00.

The Blue Jays offense has slashed .229/.311/.408 on its way to 4.6 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.4 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over the teams last five outings (2-3 SU).

Toronto’s hitters have been powered by outfielder Kevin Pillar and third baseman Yangervis Solarte. Pillar is hitting .277/.319/.456 with four home runs, 21 RBIs, 26 runs and eight steals, while Solarte (.267/.330/.492) is up to 11 homers, 32 RBIs and 26 runs scored.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .255/.300/.403, Pillar performed well against left-handed pitching on the road last year, maintaining a slash line of .338/.397/.535 across 78 such plate appearances.

The Blue Jays have lost 4.3 units and are 12-8 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to 10 that’ve gone under against lefties. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 14.3 units and are 24-16 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 18 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve cashed the under.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Blue Jays, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Toronto defense has allowed 10 errors over the last 10 games, compared to five errors for Boston over its last 10.
  • The Blue Jays have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.