Texas Longhorns at Kansas State Wildcats: NCAA Football Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The No. 18 Texas Longhorns (-8.5) and Kansas State Wildcats will face off on the turf at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. This crucial Big 12 game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and FS1 is in line to broadcast the action. These programs met a year ago with the final result being a 40-34 win for Texas.

Betting Preview: Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State is a live dog and is currently getting 8.5 points in this Big 12 game. The Longhorns are also receiving -350 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are +270. If one side can catch a lucky break early on, it would likely result in a worthy betting scenario in-game.

The game’s line initially opened at 7 and the early action has shifted toward the Longhorns.

The Longhorns have lost 2.8 units so far and are 2-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 2-2.

The Wildcats have lost 1.0 unit this season. The team is 1-3 ATS and owns an O/U record of 1-2.

The Longhorns are 3-1 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Wildcats are 2-2 SU overall and are also 0-1 SU in conference play.

The Longhorns are coming off a resounding 31-16 victory over TCU last week where Sam Ehlinger completed 22 passes for 255 yards and two touchdowns. Tre Watson (58 yards on 15 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Ehlinger (11 yards on 11 carries, one TD) led the running attack. Collin Johnson (seven receptions, 124 yards, one TD) and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (four catches, 77 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

One week ago, West Virginia knocked off this Kansas State crew by a score of 35-6. The Wildcats defensive unit let the Mountaineers pass for 356 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 108 yards. Marcus Simms had a solid outing, recording 136 yards on five catches for West Virginia. As a group, the Wildcats collectively completed 18-of-29 passes for 227 yards. Skylar Thompson went 11-for-17 for 145 yards while Alex Delton was seven-of-12 for 82 yards. Thompson (18 rushing yards on 12 attempts) and Alex Barnes (49 yards on 12 carries) handled the running game as Isaiah Zuber (10 receptions, 133 yards) and Dalton Schoen (three catches, 64 yards) led the Kansas State pass-catchers in the loss.

Texas has run the ball on 57.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas State has a rush percentage of 62.5 percent. The Longhorns have run for 163.8 yards/game and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Wildcats are logging 156.0 rush yards per game and have two total rushing TDs.

The Longhorns offensive scheme has tallied 247.3 yards per game through the air overall and has eight passing scores so far. The Wildcats have put up 191.0 pass yards per game and have five total pass TDs.

Defensively, Texas has let opponents run for an average of 117.0 yards and pass for 245.3 yards per game. The Kansas State D has allowed 231.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 178.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Longhorns are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.97 to opposing QBs, while the Wildcats have allowed a 5.90 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Ehlinger is up to 755 yards on the year. He’s connected on 64-of-98 attempts with six scores through the air and two interceptions. Ehlinger has a 7.48 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.43 over the last two outings.

Collin Johnson (220 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns this season), Lil’Jordan Humphrey (268 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Tre Watson (184 rush yards, one rush TD, one TD) have each played big roles lately.

In the home locker room, Skylar Thompson has completed 26-of-48 passes for 292 yards, two TDs and one INT. Thompson’s ANY/A sits at 5.06 for the year and 9.71 over his past two outings.

As a trio, Isaiah Zuber, Alex Barnes and Dalton Schoen have combined to account for 519 total yards and four touchdowns the last two games.

Texas Longhorns at Kansas State Wildcats NCAA Prediction

SU Winner: Texas, ATS Winner: Texas

Betting Trends

  • The Texas D has sacked opposing quarterbacks four times this season. Kansas State has produced three sacks.
  • The Kansas State offense has lost five fumbles this season while Texas has let three get away.
  • The Wildcats have made six pass plays of 30+ yards while the Longhorns have accounted for 11 such plays.
  • The Texas defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Kansas State has given up two such plays.
  • The Texas offense has created two rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Kansas State has created six such runs.
  • The Longhorns defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wildcats have given up six such runs.
  • Kansas State was favored by 15 points in its previous matchup and the Over/Under was 61.5. The under cashed and Kansas State failed to cover in the team’s 35-6 loss to West Virginia.
  • Over its last three matchups, Kansas State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Over its last three games, Texas is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Texas was the underdog by 3 points in its last game and the Over/Under was 50. The under cashed and Texas covered in the 31-16 victory over TCU.
  • Texas, as a team, has averaged 3.66428571428571 yards per rush attempt across its past three games and 2.9 over its last two.
  • Kansas State has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.2 over its last two.