Texas A&M Aggies vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: 10/27/2018 Free Betting Pick

betdsiCollege Football, Football

A couple of teams that like running the football, Head Coach Jimbo Fisher and the No. 16 Texas A&M Aggies (+3) are gearing up to pay a visit to the Mississippi State Bulldogs (-3) at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. ESPN has the TV rights and this pivotal SEC game is scheduled to start at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Texas A&M Aggies vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

In this Saturday Southeastern game, Mississippi State is projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 3 points. The Aggies are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Bulldogs are -140. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 45 points. If Mississippi State falls behind in the early stages, it’ll likely produce a worthy in-game betting opportunity.

The game’s total has moved upward after opening at 44.5. The original line (-3) hasn’t shifted.

The Aggies have recorded 2.0 units so far and are 6-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 2-4.

The underwhelming Bulldogs have lost 5.7 units this season. They’re 4-3 ATS and own an O/U record of 1-5.

The Aggies have gone 5-2 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against conference opponents. The Bulldogs are 4-3 SU overall and are also 1-3 SU in conference play.

When these two teams faced each other last year, Mississippi State knocked Texas A&M off by three touchdowns 35-14.

The Aggies just got a 26-23 victory over South Carolina on October 13 where Kellen Mond completed 25-of-37 passes for 353 yards and one touchdown. Trayveon Williams (78 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Mond (25 yards on 13 carries) led the ground attack. Quartney Davis (nine receptions, 127 yards) and Jace Sternberger (seven catches, 145 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Mississippi State just dropped a 19-3 game to LSU. Nick Fitzgerald completed eight-of-24 passes for 59 yards and four interceptions. Fitzgerald (131 rushing yards on 23 attempts) handled the running game while Hill (two receptions, 10 yards) and Deddrick Thomas (one catch, 15 yards) led the Mississippi State pass-catchers in the loss.

Texas A&M has run the ball on 55.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Mississippi State has an overall rush percentage of 60.1 percent. The Aggies have produced 204.3 rush yards per game (including 143.8 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 14 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bulldogs are logging 235.0 rushing yards per game (177.5 in conference) and have 15 total rush TDs.

It appears that the Bulldogs should hold an advantage when it comes to applying pressure, as their offensive line has given up just 12 sacks while the D-line has logged 19 sacks. The Aggies O-line has allowed 23 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing signal-callerss just 17 times.

The Aggies offensive scheme has averaged 282.4 yards through the air overall (260.8 per game versus conference opposition) and has 11 passing TDs so far. The Bulldogs have produced 171.3 pass yards per contest (93 in the SEC) and have nine total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Texas A&M has allowed 78.4 rush yards and 241.7 pass yards per game. The Mississippi State D has allowed 167.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 114.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.71 to opponents, while the Aggies have given up a 7.82 ANY/A.

Mond has been more productive than Fitzgerald of late, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 7.17for the year and 7.67 over the past two games. Fitzgerald’s ANY/A is 2.98 for the season and -2.50 over his last two games.

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Free Pick

SU Winner: Mississippi State, ATS Winner: Mississippi State, O/U: Under

Betting Trends,

  • The Mississippi State defense has sacked opposing QBs 19 times this season. Texas A&M has registered 17 sacks.
  • The Mississippi State offense has lost zero fumbles in 2018 while Texas A&M has let four get away.
  • Both offenses have recorded eight pass plays of 30+ yards.
  • The Texas A&M defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Mississippi State has given up two such plays.
  • The Texas A&M offense has created nine rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Mississippi State has created 13 such runs.
  • The Aggies defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have given up five such runs.
  • Texas A&M, as a team, has produced 3.4 yards per carry over its past three contests and 3.2 over its last two.
  • Mississippi State has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.9 over its past two.