Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Bulldogs: NCAA Football Free Betting Pick

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The No. 2 Bulldogs of Georgia (-33) are set to welcome their conference nemesis Tennessee Volunteers to Sanford Stadium. This key afternoon matchup will start at 3:30 p.m. ET and CBS will showcase the action.

Betting Preview: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Tennessee is a big road underdog here and is currently receiving 33 points from oddsmakers. This SEC matchup is projected as a toss-up, and oddsmakers have not determined this game’s over/under (O/U) yet.

This game’s opening line was initially set at -33, but has recently shifted.

The Volunteers are down 2.0 units so far and 1-3 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 2-2.

The Bulldogs are up 2.0 units this season. The team is 2-1-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-1.

The Volunteers are 2-2 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against conference opponents. The Bulldogs are 4-0 SU overall and 2-0 SU in conference play.

The Vols dropped one to Florida 47-21 in a thumping where the passing game could’ve been sharper as the Volunteers completed 10-of-25 passes for 208 yards and two interceptions. Jarrett Guarantano went seven-for-18 for 164 yards and two interceptions while Keller Chryst completed three-of-seven for 44 yards. Ty Chandler (just 66 rushing yards on 19 attempts) and Madre London (66 yards on 11 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the loss while Jauan Jennings (four receptions, 60 yards) and Marquez Callaway (two catches, 61 yards) manned the receiving duties.

Georgia just put together a 43-29 win over Missouri. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Tigers to run for 172 yards on 37 rush attempts, including four rush TDs. Albert Okwuegbunam had a good showing in the loss for Missouri, accounting for 81 yards on nine catches. For Georgia, Jake Fromm completed 13-of-23 passes for 260 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. D’Andre Swift (71 yards on 16 rush attempts) and Elijah Holyfield (90 yards on 14 carries) handled the ground game in the win while Riley Ridley (five receptions, 87 yards, one TD) and Mecole Hardman (two catches, 60 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack.

Tennessee’s run the ball on 68.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia has an overall rush percentage of 64.0 percent. The Volunteers have rushed for 205.0 yards/game and have 10 scores via handoffs this year. The Dawgs are totaling 250.3 rush yards per game (228.0 in conference) and have eight total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Dawgs ought to hold an edge when it comes to RB effectiveness, as their running backs has logged 6.3 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.8 to opponents. The Volunteers have ran for 4.4 yards per carry while allowing 4.6 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Vols offensive scheme has tallied 192.8 yards/game in the air overall and has three passing scores so far. The Dawgs have produced 227.3 pass yards per game (231 against SEC foes) and have 11 total pass TDs.

Tennessee has allowed opponents to run for an average of 134.8 yards and throw for 180.8 yards per game. The Georgia defense has allowed 173.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 118.8 yards per game on the ground. The Dawgs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.71 to opponents, while the Volunteers have given up a 6.79 ANY/A.

Offensively, Guarantano is up to 490 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has completed 61 percent of his 56 attempts with one scores through the air and two interceptions. Guarantano’s got a 6.58 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.43 over the last two outings.

The Volunteers have tried to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Ty Chandler (62 rush yards) and Madre London (125 rush yards, three rush TDs) have brought significant production to the Tennessee offensive scheme.

In the other locker room, Jake Fromm has completed 40-of-57 passes for 611 yards, six TDs and two INTs. Fromm’s ANY/A stands at 10.63 for the year and 12.22 over his past two games.

The Dawgs should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Elijah Holyfield (24 receiving yards), Jeremiah Holloman (zero rush yards, 83 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Riley Ridley (zero rush yards, 157 receiving yards, two TDs) have seen a lot of looks lately.

These two teams faced off a year ago with the final outcome being a 41-0 victory for Georgia.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Georgia Bulldogs Free Prediction

SU Winner: Georgia, ATS Winner: Tennessee

Betting Notes

  • The Tennessee defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs seven times this year. Georgia has registered three sacks.
  • The Georgia offense has lost one fumble this season while the Tennessee offense has lost six.
  • The Volunteers offense has created four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have put up six such plays.
  • Both defenses have allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards. The Tennessee defense has given up seven pass plays of 30+ yards while Georgia has given up two such plays.
  • The Tennessee offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Georgia has created nine such run.
  • The Volunteers defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have given up one such run.
  • Georgia was the underdog by 14 points in its previous match and the Over/Under was 68. The over cashed and Georgia covered in that 43-29 win over Missouri.
  • In its last three games, Georgia is 2-0-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three matches, Tennessee is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Tennessee was getting 5 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 46.5. The over cashed and Tennessee failed to cover in the 47-21 loss to Florida.
  • Tennessee, as a team, has averaged 4.66891891891892 yards per carry across its past three contests and 4.8 over its last two.
  • Georgia has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.9 over its last two.