TCU Horned Frogs vs. West Virginia Mountaineers – NCAA Football Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The TCU Horned Frogs (+14) are set to face off against the No. 7 West Virginia Mountaineers (-14) at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. This conference game starts at 12:00 p.m. ET and FS1 is scheduled to televise the action. When these two programs met a year ago, TCU won by a touchdown 31-24.

Betting Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. TCU Horned Frogs

The Horned Frogs enter into this Saturday Big 12 game as a big dog here and are currently receiving 14 points. If they want to play the moneyline, bettors would currently have to spend $600 in order to win $100 back on the Mountaineers (-600). The Horned Frogs are getting +425 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 56 points. If West Virginia gets behind early on, it’ll likely produce a solid in-game betting scenario.

With the line opening at -13 and the over/under set originally at 56.5, oddsmakers have shifted this game’s outlook a bit.

The less-than-stellar Horned Frogs are 1-7-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 10.2 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 3-5.

The Mountaineers have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 2.6 units. They’re 6-2 ATS and own an even O/U record of 4-4.

The Horned Frogs are 4-5 straight up (SU), including 2-4 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Mountaineers are 7-1 SU overall and are also 5-1 SU in conference play.

The Horned Frogs are coming off a 14-13 victory over Kansas State last week. Michael Collins completed just 17 passes on 33 attempts for 218 yards and one touchdown. Darius Anderson (48 rushing yards on 13 attempts, one TD) led the running attack. Jarrison Stewart (five receptions, 54 yards) and Jaelan Austin (four catches, 39 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

West Virginia just picked up a 42-41 win over Texas. The team’s defense let the Longhorns pass for 354 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 166 yards and two scores. Lil’Jordan Humphrey was a bright spot in the loss, recording 143 yards on nine catches for Texas. For West Virginia, Will Grier completed 28-of-42 passes for 346 yards and three touchdowns. Kennedy McKoy (94 rushing yards on 17 attempts) and Martell Pettaway (121 yards on nine carries, two TDs) mounted the running game while David Sills V (six receptions, 97 yards, two TDs) and Marcus Simms (five catches, 55 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Each of these teams sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. TCU has run the ball on 51.4 percent of its offensive possessions while West Virginia has a rush percentage of 49.6. The Horned Frogs have run for 153.1 yards/game (including 116.8 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have 11 scores on the ground this year. The Mountaineers are logging 158.4 rush yards per game (143.3 in conference) and have 11 total rushing TDs.

If 2018 numbers are any indication, then it appears the Horned Frogs ought to have the more disruptive lines up front. Their offensive line has allowed just 18 sacks while the D-line registered 42 sacks. The Mountaineers O-line has allowed 19 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 24 occasions.

The Horned Frogs offense has logged 240.1 yards per contest in the air overall (239.2 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Mountaineers have put up 333.1 pass yards per contest (317 against Big 12 foes) and have 29 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, TCU should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 144.3 rush yards and 190.7 pass yards per game. The West Virginia D has allowed 233.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 137.0 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Horned Frogs have given up an ANY/A of 5.82 to opposing QBs, while the Mountaineers are yielding an ANY/A of 5.80.

Offensively, Collins has put up 465 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 30-of-64 attempts with four scores through the air and one interception. Collins has a 7.63 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.31 over the last two outings.

As a group, Jalen Reagor, Darius Anderson and Jarrison Stewart have combined to account for 499 total yards and three touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

In the home locker room, Will Grier has completed 165-of-234 passes for 2,265 yards, 25 TDs and seven INTs. Grier’s ANY/A sits at 9.25 for the season and 11.49 over his past two games.

We’re expecting the Mountaineers to control tempo by feeding the running backs early and often. In addition to David Sills V (487 receiving yards, nine receiving TDs this season), Kennedy McKoy (437 rush yards, two rush TDs, 119 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Martell Pettaway (364 rush yards, two rush TDs, one TD) have been key factors in the Mountaineers’ recent offensive gameplans.

TCU Horned Frogs at West Virginia Mountaineers Free Prediction

SU Winner: West Virginia, ATS Winner: West Virginia, O/U: Under

Betting Trends

  • The O/U for TCU’s last game was set at 44.5. The under cashed in the team’s 14-13 victory over Kansas State.
  • TCU has rushed for 3.4 yards per attempt over its last three outings and 3.2 over its last two.
  • West Virginia has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.1 over its last two.
  • The West Virginia offense has lost three fumbles this season while TCU has lost eight.
  • Over its last three matches, TCU is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for West Virginia’s previous matchup was 57.5. The over cashed in the 42-41 win over Texas.
  • Over its last three contests, West Virginia is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Mountaineers have made 21 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Horned Frogs have accounted for 16 such plays.
  • The TCU defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while West Virginia has given up five such plays.
  • The TCU offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while West Virginia has created 11 such runs.
  • The Horned Frogs defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Mountaineers have given up 10 such runs.
  • The TCU defense has 24 sacks on the year while West Virginia has just 17.