TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks: College Football Free Pick

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In a battle featuring two schools that prefer to mix in a lot of running plays, Head Coach David Beaty and the Kansas Jayhawks are getting 14.5 points when they take on the TCU Horned Frogs to Kivisto Field at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. This Big 12 game gets underway at 3:00 p.m. ET and FS1 is scheduled to broadcast the action. When the two teams faced each other a year ago, TCU knocked Kansas off soundly 43-0.

Betting Preview: TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas Jayhawks

In this Saturday Big 12 game, TCU is projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 14.5 points. The Horned Frogs are also receiving -750 moneyline odds while the Jayhawks are +510. If one school can find paydirt early it will result in a worthwhile in-game betting scenario. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 49 points.

The early action has been leaning to both the Horned Frogs and the under. The line initially opened at 13 while the game’s total was originally 50.5.

The Horned Frogs are down 5.7 units so far in 2018 and 1-5-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-4.

The Jayhawks have lost 4.3 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-4 ATS and have an even O/U record of 3-3.

The Horned Frogs are 3-4 straight up (SU), including 1-3 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Jayhawks are 2-5 SU overall and are also 0-4 SU in conference play.

The Horned Frogs are hoping to bounce back after a 52-27 defeat to Oklahoma last week where the Horned Frogs completed 10-of-25 passes for 163 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Michael Collins went seven-for-17 for 142 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while Shawn Robinson completed three-of-eight for 21 yards. Sewo Olonilua (34 rushing yards on 11 attempts) led the ground attack. KaVontae Turpin (five receptions, 62 yards, one TD) and John Stephens Jr. (one catch, 47 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Kansas just fell 48-16 to Texas Tech. The defense allowed the Red Raiders to pass for 441 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 112 yards and three scores. Antoine Wesley was a force to be reckoned with, putting up 155 yards and a score on nine catches for Texas Tech. For Kansas, Peyton Bender completed 18-of-41 passes for 221 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Pooka Williams Jr. (70 rushing yards on 16 attempts) mounted the running game while Daylon Charlot (four receptions, 67 yards) and Kwamie Lassiter II (four catches, 41 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.

Looking at offensive play-calling, each squad sports a similar (52-48) run-pass ratio on the season. The Horned Frogs have rushed for 166.9 yards per game (including 122.8 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have eight touchdowns on the ground this year. The Jayhawks are putting up 155.3 rush yards per game (102.5 in conference) and have eight total rushing TDs.

If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then it’s looking like the Horned Frogs ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has allowed just 18 sacks while the D-line registered 42 sacks. The Jayhawks, on the other hand, have given up 29 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 19 times.

The Horned Frogs offense has averaged 227.4 yards in the air overall (216.5 per game against conference opposition) and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Jayhawks have produced 186.6 pass yards per outing (206 in the Big 12) and also have 12 total pass scores.

TCU seems to have an advantage in both defensive facets. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 157.4 yards and throw for 186.4 yards per game. The Kansas D has allowed 255.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 167.9 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Horned Frogs have given up an ANY/A of 5.78 to opposing QBs, while the Jayhawks are allowing an ANY/A of 6.12.

Bender has completed 71-of-130 passes for 711 yards, six TDs and one INT. Bender’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 4.82 for the year and 4.83 across his past two outings. In the other locker room, Shawn Robinson is up to 1,044 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 98-of-159 attempts with seven passing touchdowns and six interceptions. Robinson has a 5.36 ANY/A, including 4.64 over the last two games.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks NCAA Tip

SU Winner: TCU, ATS Winner: TCU, O/U: Under

Betting Trends,

  • The TCU D has sacked opposing QBs 18 times this season. Kansas has recorded just 12 sacks.
  • Kansas has lost four fumbles in 2018 while the TCU offense has lost six.
  • The Horned Frogs offense has tallied seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Jayhawks have accounted for one such play.
  • The TCU defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while Kansas has given up four such plays.
  • The TCU offense has created three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Kansas has created 16 such runs.
  • The Horned Frogs defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Jayhawks have given up nine such runs.
  • The Over/Under for Kansas’ last matchup was set at 59. The over cashed in that 48-16 loss to Texas Tech.
  • In its last three contests, Kansas is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Over its last three matches, TCU is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • TCU has lost five of its last six games SU, with a three-point victory over Iowa State on September 29th representing the only win over that stretch.
  • The O/U for TCU’s previous game going into it was 61. The over cashed in the team’s 52-27 loss to Oklahoma.
  • TCU has rushed for 3.2 yards per attempt across its last three games and 3.8 over its last two.
  • Kansas has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.0 over its past two.